ASEAN Market Analysis

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1 Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction & Objective ..................................................................................... 3 2. ASEAN Electronics Market .................................................................................. 4 3. India-ASEAN Trade Position ................................................................................. 5 4. Country-Wise Performance Analysis .................................................................. 6 5. Opportunities ....................................................................................................... 7 6. Barriers to Entry ................................................................................................... 8 7. Policy Landscape ................................................................................................. 9 8. Recommendations ............................................................................................. 10 9. Conclusion & Annexures .................................................................................... 11

2 Executive Summary This report looks at India's electronics exports to ASEAN, using country-level export data for FY2024-25 and FY2025-26, alongside published ASEAN and industry sources. ASEAN is one of the world's largest electronics manufacturing and trade hubs, with total ICT goods trade reaching US$983.1 billion in 2024. Against that backdrop, India's electronics exports to the region reached US$1,470.29 million in 2025-26 — up 8.70% from the year before — while India's total electronics exports to the world grew much faster, by 24.39%, to US$47,961.13 million. As a result, ASEAN's share of India's total electronics exports slipped from 3.51% to 3.07%. Growth within ASEAN is also uneven. Eight of the eleven ASEAN markets grew in 2025-26, led by Myanmar (which more than doubled), Cambodia and Brunei, while exports declined to the Philippines and Indonesia and were roughly flat to Thailand. Malaysia has overtaken Vietnam to become India's second-largest ASEAN market. Four markets — Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand already account for about 85% of India's ASEAN electronics exports. The report identifies concrete opportunities in smartphones, printed circuit boards and semiconductors, and in diversifying beyond the four largest markets. It also finds real barriers: complex rules of origin under the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA), fragmented certification requirements across ASEAN countries, and entrenched competition from Vietnam and China. The report closes with eight practical recommendations, sequenced into quick wins and longer-term moves, aimed at helping India convert a large but still largely untapped market into a meaningful share of its electronics export growth.

3 1. Introduction & Objective 1.1 Introduction ASEAN has emerged as a major global hub for electronics manufacturing and trade, supported by integrated production networks, strong regional trade linkages, and increasing investment in electronics and ICT-related industries. In 2024, ASEAN's ICT goods trade reached US$983.1 billion, underlining the scale and strategic importance of the sector within the region. The continued development of electronics and technology- intensive manufacturing is strengthening ASEAN's position in global value chains and creating opportunities across components, electrical equipment, computing, communication and related product segments. For India, the growing scale and diversification of the ASEAN electronics ecosystem present an important avenue for expanding electronics exports and strengthening participation in regional supply chains. 1.2 Objective The objective of this report is to assess the ASEAN electronics market and identify opportunities for Indian exporters by analyzing the market structure and major product segments, examining country-wise growth and trade performance, evaluating India's existing position in the region, and assessing key market-access barriers and relevant policy factors. The analysis aims to identify high-potential ASEAN markets and product areas and provide practical recommendations for expanding India's electronics exports and participation in ASEAN value chains.

4 2. ASEAN Electronics Market 2.1 ASEAN Electronics Trade Overview ASEAN has emerged as a major global hub for the production and trade of electrical and electronic products, supported by integrated regional supply chains and strong two-way merchandise trade. ICT goods trade in ASEAN reached US$983.1 billion in 2024, up from US$838.7 billion in 2023, underlining the scale and growing strategic importance of the sector within the region. 2.2 Composition of ASEAN ICT Trade ASEAN's ICT trade is heavily concentrated in electronic components and equipment used across regional and global production networks. In 2024, electronic components accounted for US$590.7 billion, making them by far the largest ICT trade category. This was followed by computers and ICT peripheral equipment at US$174.1 billion and communication equipment at US$144.4 billion. Consumer electronic equipment contributed US$43.1 billion, while miscellaneous ICT goods accounted for US$30.7 billion. Figure 1: ASEAN's ICT goods trade by category, 2024 (US$ billion) 2.3 Key Market Insights The structure of ASEAN's electronics trade highlights the region's role as a major manufacturing and supply-chain hub, rather than solely a final-consumption market. The strong presence of electronic components, computers, and communication equipment within regional ICT trade reflects the depth of ASEAN's electronics ecosystem and its integration into global production networks. The scale and composition of trade indicate that opportunities in ASEAN extend across both intermediate components and finished electronics products, with individual member states playing different roles within the regional value chain.

5 3. India-ASEAN Trade Position In 2025-26, India's electronics exports to ASEAN grew by 8.70%, rising from US$1,352.58 million to US$1,470.29 million. However, India's electronics exports to the whole world grew much faster, by 24.39%, rising from US$38,556.49 million to US$47,961.13 million. Because exports to ASEAN grew far more slowly than the rest of the world, ASEAN's share of India's total electronics exports fell from 3.51% to 3.07%, as Table 1 summaries. ASEAN is one of the biggest hubs for electronics manufacturing and trade in the world. Yet it takes just over 3% of India's electronics exports, and that share is narrowing. In simple terms, ASEAN is not yet a major market for India, even though India's exports are growing much faster elsewhere. This makes ASEAN a market with strong future potential, rather than one that is already fully used. Table 1: India's electronics trade with ASEAN — key metrics, 2024-25 vs 2025-26 Metric (USD million unless %) 2024-25 2025-26 Change Electronics Exports, India → ASEAN 1,352.58 1,470.29 +8.70% India's Total Electronics Exports (World) 38,556.49 47,961.13 +24.39% ASEAN's Share of India's Total Exports 3.51% 3.07% -0.44 pp Source: DGCIS 4. Country-Wise Performance Analysis Out of the 11 ASEAN countries, 8 showed growth, 2 declined, and 1 was roughly flat in 2025-26. Myanmar had by far the strongest growth, more than doubling (+106.17%) from a meaningful base. Cambodia and Brunei also grew strongly, both around +26-27%, while Malaysia — which has overtaken Vietnam to become India's second-largest ASEAN market grew a solid +17.12%. Singapore and Vietnam grew more moderately, at +11.03% and +8.69% respectively. Thailand was essentially flat (-1.05%), while exports declined more clearly in the Philippines (-13.42%) and Indonesia (-2.22%). Indonesia and the Philippines are large, populous economies, so continued softness in these two countries deserves closer attention — it may point to rising local competition, changing demand, or market-access issues Looking at individual countries, most of India's electronics exports to ASEAN go to just a few markets. Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand together made up about 85% of all electronics exports to ASEAN in 2025-26, with Singapore alone accounting for nearly 43% of the total. This shows that India's electronics trade with ASEAN depends heavily on a small number of countries. Table 2: India's electronics exports by ASEAN country, 2024-25 vs 2025-26 Country 2024-25 (US$M) 2025-26 (US$M) Growth Category Singapore 565.31 627.67 +11.03% Growth Malaysia 218.66 256.09 +17.12% Growth Vietnam 201.95 219.50 +8.69% Growth Thailand 151.97 150.37 -1.05% Flat Indonesia 116.05 113.47 -2.22% Decline

6 Philippines 80.99 70.12 -13.42% Decline Myanmar 10.18 20.99 +106.17% Growth Cambodia 5.91 7.50 +26.90% Growth Lao PDR 0.44 2.84 n/m* Growth Brunei 1.10 1.39 +26.36% Growth Timor-Leste 0.023 0.36 n/m* Growth ASEAN Total 1,352.58 1,470.29 +8.70% Growth Source: DGCIS *Lao PDR and Timor-Leste show very large percentage growth, but this is because exports from these countries started from a very small base (close to zero in 2024- 25). In dollar terms, the increase is small, so these two markets are not shown in Figure 3 below, to keep the scale readable for the other nine countries. Figure 3: Export growth by ASEAN market, 2024-25 to 2025-26 (excludes Lao PDR and Timor-Leste — see note above) Key Takeaways ● 8 of 11 ASEAN markets grew in 2025-26; the Philippines and Indonesia declined, and Thailand was roughly flat. ● Myanmar showed by far the strongest growth, more than doubling; Cambodia and Brunei also grew strongly. ● Malaysia has overtaken Vietnam to become India's second-largest ASEAN market, growing a solid +17.12%. ● Falling exports to the Philippines and Indonesia matter more than the modest percentage declines suggest, given the size of these economies. ● Lao PDR and Timor-Leste show huge percentage growth, but only because they started from almost zero — the dollar amounts are still small. 5. Opportunities ASEAN offers substantial scope for expanding India’s electronics exports. Despite the region’s importance as a global electronics hub, India’s export presence remains relatively small and concentrated in a few markets. The following analysis identifies the key markets and product segments where Indian exporters can deepen their presence and diversify their ASEAN footprint.

7 Table 3: Market-level opportunities for India's ASEAN electronics exports Opportunity Area Why It Matters Target Markets Untapped Headroom ASEAN takes just over 3% of India's total electronics exports — and a share that is narrowing — despite being a global electronics hub. All ASEAN markets Fast-Growing Markets Myanmar more than doubled, and Cambodia, Brunei and Malaysia all grew strongly (17% to over 100%) in 2025-26. Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei, Malaysia Recovering Large Markets Indonesia and the Philippines are large economies where India's exports declined but are also among the region's fastest-growing smartphone markets. Indonesia, Philippines Diversification Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand already account for ~85% of India's ASEAN electronics exports. Smaller, underused markets It also helps to look beyond markets, at specific products. Table 4 matches India's strongest and fastest- growing electronics export categories with the parts of the ASEAN market most likely to want them Table 4: Product-level opportunities Product Why It's a Good Fit Best-Fit Markets Smartphones & telecom devices India's largest single electronics export category, worth about US$30 billion in 2025. Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are among the region's fastest-growing smartphone markets. Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam Printed circuit boards (PCBs) India's PCB exports are rising fast — exports to China alone jumped roughly 40-fold to about US$1.5 billion in a single year. PCBs feed directly into ASEAN's largest trade segment, electronic components. Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand Semiconductors & integrated circuits Electronic components make up ASEAN's biggest ICT trade segment, at US$590.7 billion. India's new semiconductor plants, now coming online, open an early door into this segment. Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam Insulated wires & cables A basic input needed by almost every electronics assembly line across ASEAN's manufacturing hubs. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia Telecom transmission gear & TV/radio parts ASEAN countries are expanding 5G networks, which is raising demand for transmission and broadcasting equipment. Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand Note: The products above combine India's fastest-growing electronics export categories nationally with ASEAN's known demand patterns. Key Takeaways ● ASEAN's roughly 3% share of India's electronics exports — a share that is narrowing — is the single biggest opportunity signal in this report. ● Smartphones are India's largest electronics export (US$30 billion in 2025) and match rising phone demand in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. ● PCBs and semiconductors point to a second opportunity: supplying components into ASEAN's US$590.7 billion component trade, not just finished products. ● Fast-growing smaller markets (Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei) offer early-mover potential before they mature. ● Spreading exports beyond Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand would reduce India's reliance on just four markets.

8 6. Barriers to Entry Some barriers come from trade rules, some from country-specific red tape, and some from the sheer scale of competitors already established in the region. ● Complex rules of origin: To get lower tariffs under the India-ASEAN FTA (AITIGA), a product needs at least 35% local value addition — a threshold that may rise to 40-45%. Many Indian electronics products rely on imported parts, making this hard to meet. Fewer than half of Indian exporters currently use AITIGA benefits at all. ● Complex rules of origin and compliance: To access preferential tariffs under AITIGA, exporters must satisfy the applicable rules of origin and provide the required documentation. The complexity of origin calculations and limited awareness of preferential trade procedures can create compliance costs, particularly for smaller exporters. ● Fragmented certification rules: Each ASEAN country runs its own mandatory product certification, and none recognises each other's approvals — adding cost and time to every new market. Examples include SIRIM in Malaysia, SNI in Indonesia (3-6 months), TISI/NBTC in Thailand, and Vietnam's QCVN rules with new RoHS requirements. ● Entrenched competition: Vietnam and China already run large, well-established electronics manufacturing bases in and around ASEAN, making it hard for India to compete on price and speed. Vietnam's electronics exports alone were about US$165 billion in 2023 — far above India's total electronics exports. ● Local content push: Some ASEAN countries increasingly want companies to manufacture locally rather than just import, shifting the opportunity from exports towards investment. Indonesia's local-content rules reportedly pushed Apple to commit US$1 billion to local manufacturing. The biggest barrier may simply be scale. As Figure 4 shows, India's entire electronics export base is still small next to an established regional competitor like Vietnam — which makes competing on price and volume difficult without first building up capacity. Figure 4: India's electronics export scale vs. Vietnam's (US$ billion

9 7. Policy Landscape ASEAN is one of India's most important trading partners, accounting for about 11% of India's global trade, with bilateral trade between the two reaching US$128 billion in 2025-26. The opportunities and barriers sit inside a wider policy relationship, built mainly around three pillars: the ASEAN-India FTA, India's stance on RCEP, and a set of bilateral and domestic policies. 7.1 The ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) AITIGA, in force since 2010, is the main trade agreement covering India-ASEAN goods trade, including electronics. To claim its lower tariffs, a product must meet a rules-of-origin test — currently 35% local value addition, though this may rise to 40-45% once a long-running review is finalised. That review has been underway since 2019 and remains unresolved even after its 13th Joint Committee meeting in July 2026. India has grown increasingly frustrated with the pace, since its exports to ASEAN grew only about 65% over the agreement's first decade, while imports from ASEAN surged 186% over the same period. Part of this imbalance traces back to how the original deal was structured: Indonesia and Vietnam, two of ASEAN's largest economies, committed to eliminate tariffs on only about 50% and 70% of their tariff lines respectively, a much lower opening than other ASEAN members offered. This more limited opening may help explain Indonesia's continued export decline, even though Vietnam's own trade with India has still grown despite a similarly modest commitment. 7.2 RCEP and India's “RCEP Minus China” Approach India took part in negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which groups ASEAN with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand but withdrew in 2019, mainly over concerns about its trade deficit with China and weak safeguards against Chinese goods entering India indirectly through other RCEP members. Rather than join RCEP outright, India has since built bilateral FTAs with nearly every RCEP member individually, most recently concluding one with New Zealand in December 2025 sometimes called a “RCEP minus China” strategy, since it recreates much of RCEP's market access without extending duty-free treatment to China. Renewed debate about formally joining RCEP has surfaced in 2025-26, driven by global tariff pressures and India's need to diversify export markets, though India's official position has not changed. 7.3 Bilateral Agreements and Domestic Policy Support Alongside AITIGA, India has a deeper bilateral deal with Singapore — the India-Singapore Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) which offers stronger terms on investment and mutual recognition; exporters can use whichever agreement suits them better. On the domestic side, the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for electronics manufacturing and India's semiconductor mission are building up the product like smartphones, PCBs and semiconductors that could eventually be exported into ASEAN. These schemes don't change ASEAN market access directly, but they strengthen the manufacturing base that any future export push into ASEAN would depend on. Taken together, these agreements set the rules of the game for India's ASEAN electronics trade. As the AITIGA review and the RCEP debate continue to evolve, how far they move on rules of origin, certification and market access will shape how much of the opportunity India can capture.

10 8. Recommendations ASEAN is a large, fast-growing electronics market where India has real strengths but only a small foothold. The recommendations below are practical next steps for closing that gap. 1. Double down on fast-growing small markets — Myanmar, Cambodia and Brunei are already growing fastest. Back this early with trade missions and MSME outreach before competition catches up 2. Launch a recovery plan for Indonesia and the Philippines — Pair market-entry support with dedicated help navigating SNI and PS/ICC certification — likely contributors to the export declines seen in both markets; also keep an eye on Thailand, which is now roughly flat 3. Push AITIGA negotiators for electronics-specific relief — Seek workable product-specific rules of origin instead of a blanket 40-45% value-addition hike, given how much Indian electronics manufacturing still depends on imported components 4. Raise FTA utilisation — Run awareness campaigns as less than half of Indian exporters currently claim AITIGA benefits at all. 5. Set up a one-stop certification helpdesk — Help exporters navigate SIRIM, SNI, TISI/NBTC and QCVN requirements faster and cheaply, rather than each firm tackling every country's rule from scratch. 6. Shift from finished goods to components — Build export capacity in PCBs and semiconductors to feed ASEAN's US$590.7 billion components trade, targeting Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. 7. Diversify beyond the big four — Actively court smaller markets like Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Brunei and Timor-Leste — to reduce reliance on the four markets that already make up about 85% of India's ASEAN electronics exports. 8. Track the RCEP debate closely — If India reconsiders membership, ensure electronics exporters are included early in impact assessments, given the sector's mixed exposure to cheaper imported inputs versus competitive risk. Policy Sequencing: Phase I — Stabilise & Enable (0–12 months): Focus on recovering market share in Indonesia and the Philippines, increasing FTA utilisation, establishing a one-stop certification helpdesk, and diversifying into smaller ASEAN markets. Phase II — Expand & Integrate (1–3 years): Scale engagement in fast-growing ASEAN markets while developing India's capabilities in electronics components, including PCBs and semiconductors. Pursue electronics-specific rules of origin under AITIGA. Phase III — Build Strategic Resilience (3+ years): Strengthen India's integration into ASEAN electronics value chains and continuously assess the implications of RCEP developments for Indian electronics exporters.

11 9. Conclusion & Annexures 9.1 Conclusion ASEAN's electronics trade runs into hundreds of billions of dollars, built on deep regional manufacturing networks and rising consumer demand. Against that backdrop, India's presence is still modest, just over 3% of its total electronics exports reach the region, and that share is narrowing, with four markets accounting for most of it. Yet the same data also shows real momentum: fast-growing markets emerging in Myanmar, Cambodia and Brunei, a smartphone export engine that is now among India's largest, and early moves into components like PCBs and semiconductors that could plug directly into ASEAN's manufacturing base. The path forward is not effortless. India will need to work through slow-moving trade negotiations, a patchwork of certification regimes, and competitors with a decade or more of manufacturing scale behind them. But none of these barriers are new or unfamiliar — they are the ordinary cost of entering a market for this size. What this report suggests is that the opportunity is large enough, and India's underlying export capability strong enough, to justify a sustained, deliberate push into ASEAN over the next few years, rather than treating the region as a secondary market to be addressed once other priorities are settled. 9.2 Annexures: Data Sources Figures in Sections 3 and 4 are drawn directly from the DGCIS dataset. Figures in Sections 5 and 6 combine DGCIS data with the external sources listed below. Where estimates or approximate figures are used, this is indicated in the relevant section ● DGCIS — Foreign Trade Data Dissemination Portal, Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India — https://ftddp.dgciskol.gov.in/dgcis/ ● ASEANstats — ASEAN Secretariat statistics portal, ICT goods trade — https://www.aseanstats.org/ ● PIB — 13th AITIGA Joint Committee meeting, July 2026 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2282336&reg=48&lang=1 ● News on Air — India's electronics and smartphone export figures, 2025— https://www.newsonair.gov.in/india-achieves-record- electronics-exports-of-47-billion-dollars-in-2025 ● Business Standard — India's PCB exports to China, FY26 — https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-s-printed- circuit-board-exports-to-china-are-a-rare-success-story-126062501068_1.html ● IMARC Engineering — Vietnam's electronics export scale, China+1 context — https://www.imarcengineering.com/blog/china- plus-one-india-manufacturing-strategy ● ASEAN Briefing — Apple's US$1 billion investment commitment in Indonesia— https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/apples- us1-billion-bet-on-indonesia-local-compliance-and-market-growth/ ● News on Air — India-New Zealand FTA conclusion, December 2025 — https://www.newsonair.gov.in/india-new-zealand- conclude-free-trade-agreement ● Alibaba.com Seller Blog — ASEAN electronics certification requirements by country — https://seller.alibaba.com/blogs/2026/southeast-asia/electronics/compliance-certification-import-guide-alibaba ● ORF, "India and RCEP: An Uphill Journey Ahead" — https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-and-rcep-an-uphill-journey- ahead ● CSDR, "Fixing ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA)" — https://csdronline.com/blind-spot/fixing-asean-india-trade-in- goods-agreement-aitiga-a-litmus-test-for-india-asean-relations/ ● Beacon Filing, "ASEAN-India FTA Guide for SE Asian Firms" — https://beaconfiling.com/blog/asean-india-fta-practical-guide ● Deccan Herald, "Early end of trade deal review stressed..." — https://www.deccanherald.com/india/early-end-of-trade-deal- review-stressed-as-india-asean-summit-to-observe-2026-as-maritime-cooperation-year-3776075