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Foreword 1 Why Cebu and Iloilo Ran Out of Water 5 Beyond RO - What the Middle East Learned 9 Why RO is Cheapest (But Not Cheap) 14 First Fuel: Geothermal - The Iceland-Kenya- Philippines Lineage 18 Second Fuel: Sun and Gas 24 Third Fuel, First in Iloilo: Waste-to-Energy 30 Why Metro Manila is Stuck 35 A Playbook for Super El Niño 41 Epilogue: What You Can Do 45 Contents
Foreword This small book started with a simple question in a water district office in Cebu: Why does an island surrounded by water run out of water? The answer, I learned, is not about water at all. It is about energy. In 2023 and 2024, as Super El Niño emptied Angat Dam and turned wells in Mactan and Iloilo brackish, I watched trucks deliver water to hotels that used to be proud of their infinity pools. I watched mothers line up with pails at 4 a.m. I heard the same sentence from engineers, mayors, and mothers: 'We have the sea, but we cannot afford to drink it.’ That sentence is both true and false. We can afford it - if we get the energy right. I wrote this book for people who are not engineers. I am not an engineer either. I am a Filipino who lived through water cutoffs in Quezon City and wondered what happens when the next, stronger El Niño comes. 1
What I found surprised me. First, that the cheapest way to make seawater drinkable is not to boil it, as Saudi Arabia did for fifty years, but to filter it. Reverse osmosis - RO - costs $0.80 per cubic meter versus $1.35 for the old boiling method. It needs only electricity, not heat. That makes it flexible: you can power it with whatever cheap, clean electricity you have. Second, that we already have that cheap electricity under our feet. The Philippines is the third largest geothermal producer in the world. We have sun that the Middle East envies. And since February 2025, we have a new idea tested in Iloilo: 470 tons of garbage a day turned into 3.5 megawatts to help power the country's largest desalination plant. Waste that clogged our drains becoming water that fills our taps. Third, that a small, cold country in the North Atlantic - Iceland - quietly taught us how. Since 1979, 29 Filipinos, the first two from PNOC-EDC, went to Reykjavik to study geothermal for six months, fully funded. 2
Many of these Filipino trainees came home and now run our geothermal fields. Iceland did the same for Kenya. A lineage of heat: Iceland → Kenya → Philippines. If they could turn volcanoes into electricity, we can turn electricity into water. This book is not a technical manual. There are no formulas. There are stories: of Cordova's 20 MLD plant, of MEZ2's factories making their own water, of Iloilo's bold P5.5 billion gamble, of Smokey Mountain residents fearing incinerators, of 17 mayors in Metro Manila unable to agree where garbage should go. I wrote it because PAGASA says Super El Niño will come more often. The question is not if Angat will drop again, but when. And when it does, will we have water that does not depend on rain? The sea is there. The heat under Leyte and Negros is there. The sun over Cebu is there. Even our garbage, 9,500 tons a day in Manila alone, is there. We just need to connect them. 3
I dedicate this book to water district operators who work at 2 a.m. to fix leaks, to barangay workers who try to segregate waste with no truck, and to the next Filipino engineer who will go to Iceland to learn how to make power from heat, and come home to make water from power. If this small book helps a mayor, a student, or a mother understand why desalination is not magic and why waste-to-energy is not just burning, then it has done its job. 4
Why Cebu and Iloilo Ran Out of Water If you live in Quezon City, you think of water as something that comes when you open the tap. In Cebu and Iloilo, in the last five years, people learned that it does not have to. In 2023 and 2024, as El Niño strengthened, water districts in Mactan, Cordova, and parts of Iloilo City announced rotating cutoffs. Hotels on Mactan Island - the tourism jewel that brings in dollars - had to bring in water by truck. In Iloilo, wells that had served barangays for twenty years suddenly turned salty. It was not because there is no water in the Philippines. It is because we have been using the wrong water. For decades, Cebu and Iloilo relied on groundwater. Cebu has no large river like Angat. It has limestone. Limestone is like a sponge that sits next to the sea. When you pump too much freshwater out, seawater seeps in. 5
The Philippine Association of Water Districts calls this seawater intrusion, and it is now measured in more than 30% of coastal wells in Cebu. The water becomes brackish - not quite seawater, not quite fresh. You can still bathe in it, but you cannot drink it without getting sick. In Iloilo, the story is different but the ending is the same. Iloilo City grew fast. The Jalaur River and the Maasin Watershed could supply 30,000 cubic meters a day in the 1990s. The city now needs more than 60,000. The watershed was deforested, the river silted, and during El Niño, flow dropped by 40%. The city had to choose: give water to farmers or to homes. That is why both cities turned to the sea. In 2023, Vivant Water broke ground in Cordova for a 20 MLD (million liters per day) seawater reverse osmosis plant. In Mactan Economic Zone, Aboitiz InfraCapital built a 5 MLD plant inside MEZ2 for factories. In 2025, Metro Pacific Water Solutions with French company SUEZ broke ground in Iloilo City for 66,500 cubic meters . 6
per day - the largest desalination plant in the Philippines, a P5.5 billion private investment to serve 700,000 residents. These plants do not make water from nothing. They make drinking water from seawater by pushing it at very high pressure - about 60 times the pressure in your car tire - through a membrane so tight that only water molecules pass. Salt stays behind. The technology is called reverse osmosis, or RO. The public reaction was mixed. Some said, "We are surrounded by water, of course we should do this." Others said, "Desalination is expensive, it uses too much power, it will make water bills unaffordable." Both are right. Desalination can work in the Philippines, but only if we get the energy right. And that is the story of this small book. El Niño is not a one-time event. PAGASA says super El Niños, like 1997-98 and 2023-24, will become more frequent as climate changes. When El Niño comes, dams drop, rivers dry, and groundwater gets salty. 7
The only water that does not disappear during El Niño is seawater. The question is not whether we will need desalination. The question is whether we can afford to run it. This is not just a Cebu and Iloilo problem. Zamboanga, Palawan, Siargao, Boracay, Masbate - all islands, all dependent on small watersheds or groundwater, all facing the same pressure from population, tourism, and climate. What we learn in Cebu and Iloilo will be the template for the rest of the country. In the next chapters, we will look at what the rest of the world learned the hard way, and what two small countries - Iceland and Kenya - can teach a country of 7,641 islands about turning heat and waste into water. 8
Beyond RO - What the Middle East Learned If you want to learn about desalination, you go to the desert. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar - they get less than 100 millimeters of rain a year, less than a tenth of Manila. They have no rivers. For fifty years they have had to make drinking water from the sea, or die of thirst. They started with the simplest idea: boil seawater, catch the steam, leave the salt. This is called thermal desalination. The first technology was MSF - Multi-Stage Flash. Imagine a series of chambers, each at lower pressure than the last. You heat seawater to 90-110°C, then let it flash into steam as it moves from high pressure to low pressure. The steam condenses as fresh water. It works, but it is like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. It needs huge amounts of heat and huge amounts of power. The International Atomic Energy Agency's DEEP model estimates MSF needs $0.77 per cubic meter just for energy, and total cost $1.35 per cubic meter. 9
Then came MED - Multi-Effect Distillation. Instead of flashing, you reuse the steam. The steam from first effect heats the second effect, and so on. More efficient. Energy cost drops to $0.39, total cost to $1.03 per cubic meter. Then came VC - Vapor Compression. You compress the vapor to make it hotter, reuse it. Good for small plants on ships and islands. All three are thermal. They need both heat and electricity. In the 1970s, when oil was cheap, Middle East built them next to power plants. The power plant makes electricity, dumps waste heat, and that waste heat makes water. This is called cogeneration, and it makes sense when you have cheap fuel. But in the 2000s, something changed. Membranes got cheap. A new technology, reverse osmosis, started to beat thermal on cost. RO does not boil water. It filters it. You need only electricity, no heat. Energy cost for RO is $0.20 per cubic meter - less than a third of MSF. 10
Total cost is $0.80-0.95 per cubic meter. And membranes keep getting better - 20 years ago RO needed 6-8 kWh per cubic meter. Now it needs 2.5-3.5 kWh. Saudi Arabia noticed. In 2015, it had 70% MSF, 20% MED, 10% RO. By 2023, new contracts were 90% RO. The world's largest desalination plant, Ras Al Khair, 1.05 million cubic meters per day, is now hybrid - part MSF, part RO - but future plants are RO only. The reason is simple: solar PV is now cheapest electricity in desert, and solar makes electricity, not heat. Solar + RO is cheaper than gas + MSF. What does this mean for the Philippines? It means we can skip the thermal phase. We do not need to build MSF plants like Saudi did in 1970s. We can go directly to RO, which is what Cebu and Iloilo did. That is smart. But there is a second lesson: Middle East learned that cheapest water comes from cheapest energy, not cheapest plant. The plant itself is only 30% of cost. 11
Energy is 50-60%. If you build RO but power it with diesel genset at P12-15/kWh, water will cost P100+/m3 and people will complain. If you power same RO with geothermal at P5-6/kWh or solar at P3-4/kWh, water drops to P30-50/m3. Iceland and Kenya understood this. They did not start with desalination. They started with geothermal for electricity, then realized electricity can make water. That is the model we should copy. There is also a warning from Middle East: brine. For every liter of fresh water, RO makes 1.5 liters of brine - seawater with twice the salt, plus cleaning chemicals. In Saudi, they dump it back to sea and it sinks, harming corals. The Philippines has more corals than Saudi has oil. Our DENR requires careful brine disposal - dilution, diffusers, no dumping near marine protected areas. This adds cost but is non-negotiable. 12
So the lesson is: RO won globally because it needs only electricity, not heat. That makes it flexible - you can power it with geothermal, solar, gas, waste-to-energy, even wind. But RO is only as cheap as its electricity. If we want more RO plants beyond Cebu and Iloilo, we must first solve energy. 13
Why RO is Cheapest (But Not Cheap) Let us talk numbers, but in simple terms. Imagine you need to make 1 cubic meter of drinking water - 1,000 liters, enough for one family for two days. How much does energy cost? - If you use MSF (boiling): You need both electricity and heat. DEEP model says energy alone costs $0.77. Total cost including plant, chemicals, labor, capital: $1.35. In pesos, about P78 per cubic meter. - If you use MED (better boiling): Energy $0.39, total $1.03, about P60. - If you use RO (filtering): Energy $0.20, total $0.80- 0.95, about P46-55. Why is RO cheaper? Because it does not waste heat. MSF and MED need to heat seawater to 70-110°C. That heat comes from steam that could have made electricity. So you are throwing away electricity to make water. RO uses electricity directly to push water through membrane. No heat waste. 14
Second reason: membranes keep improving. In 1990, a membrane lasted 3 years. Now 7-10 years. In 1990, it needed 10 kWh/m3. Now it needs 3 kWh. Third: RO is modular. You can build 5 MLD now, add 5 MLD later. MSF you must build 50 MLD at once or it is inefficient. For Philippine water districts that grow 5% a year, modular is better. But here is the catch: those dollar figures assume electricity at $0.05/kWh (P2.90/kWh). In Philippines, especially in islands, electricity is $0.10-0.20/kWh. If you power RO with diesel genset in Siargao at P15/kWh, your energy cost becomes $0.60, total $1.20- 1.30, P70-75/m3. That is what some feasibility studies for Cebu showed: P70-80/m3. Compare that to current water tariff in Manila: P30- 40/m3. So desalination at P70 sounds expensive. But compare to true cost of not having water: Hotels in Mactan trucking water at P150-200/m3. Families buying bottled water at P5,000/m3. Factories shutting down because they have no water. 15
So RO is cheapest among desalination options, but still expensive unless electricity is cheap. That is why energy choice is everything. Let us do a simple math for Iloilo 66,500 m3/day plant: - At 3.5 kWh/m3, it needs 232,750 kWh per day = 9.7 MW continuous. - If power is diesel at P15/kWh, daily energy cost = P3.49 million. Per cubic meter = P52.5 just for energy. - If power is geothermal at P6/kWh, energy cost = P1.39 million, P21/m3. - Saving = P2.1 million per day, P766 million per year. That saving is why Metro Pacific Water is trying to get waste-to-energy and renewable energy for the plant. They said: "We're exhausting all measures to make sure that this is affordable for the Iloilo residents." This is also why combining sources helps: Geothermal baseload 24/7 covers 70%, solar PV covers daytime peak 30%, WtE covers maybe 25% if available. You never pay diesel price. 16
For the general public, think of it like this: RO plant is like an aircon. Aircon itself is cheap, but electricity bill is expensive. If you power aircon with solar, it feels cheap. Same with RO. So the second lesson is: If the Philippines can develop its geothermal (we have 1.9 GW installed, 3rd in world) and natural gas (Malampaya, LNG) and solar (we have plenty), we make electricity cheap, and then RO water becomes cheap, and then we can build more RO plants. Geothermal energy and gas augur well for RO - not because RO needs heat, but because RO needs cheap electricity. 17
18 First Fuel: Geothermal - The Iceland-Kenya- Philippines Lineage This is my favorite chapter, because it is about how a small island in the North Atlantic taught a country in East Africa and a country in Southeast Asia how to make power from heat. Iceland in 1940 was one of Europe's poorest countries. It imported coal from Britain to heat homes. People burned it in stoves. Reykjavik was smoky in winter. In 1973, oil price quadrupled. Iceland had a crisis. Government decided: we have volcanoes, geysers, hot springs - why import coal? They made a decision that changed history. They passed laws that government would explore geothermal, drill, and give cheap heat to homes. They bought rotary drilling rigs. They recruited first geothermal specialist in 1945. They built State Drilling Contractors.
By 1984, share of geothermal for space heating went from 43% in 1970 to 83% in 1984. Today 90% of homes are heated by geothermal. Electricity followed. First was geothermal steam turbine in 1969. Today 665 MW, 29% of their electricity requirements. Total primary energy from geothermal + hydro is 82-86%. Kenya's story is similar but slower. Kenya sits on East African Rift - same kind of volcanoes as the Philippines. In 1950s, they saw Olkaria steam. But they had no money, no rigs, no experts. They drilled two wells X-1 and X-2 in 1950s, both failed. They stopped. In 1970, UNDP funded a restart. In 1975, well OW-2 produced 3 MW. It was an encouraging breakthrough. Today Kenya has 300+ MW in Olkaria, and plans to go to 30% of electricity from geothermal, which is now at thirteen percent. What connects Iceland and Kenya? A school. In 1979, the Government of Iceland and the United Nations University created UNU Geothermal Training Programme (UNU-GTP) in Reykjavik. 19
It was a six-month intensive course for engineers from developing countries. It was fully funded by Iceland – including cost of flights, housing, tuition. The first two students in May 1979 were two Filipinos from PNOC-EDC. Since then, the Philippines has sent 29-31 Fellows, third largest after China and Kenya. Kenya 53, Philippines 31, El Salvador 30. Each year 2 Filipinos go. Online sources gave some names, many of them now leaders in their own field: - Zosimo F. Sarmiento, 1980, Borehole Geophysics - one of earliest. - Edgar C. Gimenez, 1987, Geothermal Utilization, PNOC-EDC. - Cecilia Polo Balmes, 1994, Chemistry of Thermal Fluids, DOE Geothermal Division - studied Mahanagdong sector, Leyte. - Carlos Emmanuel Fajardo Los Baños, 1997, Geophysical Exploration, PNOC-EDC - Leyte. 20
- Ariel D. Fronda, database for monitoring geothermal fields performance. - Jeffrey Andal, 2019 + MSc 2021-2023, DOE - modeled low-temperature geothermal in Montelago, Mindoro, exactly the project where Icelandic company ISOR did exploration work in 2014. - Kristine Eia Antonio, 2013, Reservoir Engineering, EDC - Bacon-Manito field. - Jonathan Monasterial, 2015, Geophysical Exploration, EDC - BacMan field. The 2003 review by Filipino fellows Francisco Benito and Alicia Reyes found 59% of Filipino fellows remain in geothermal industry, and they have been promoted to supervisors, managers, policy makers. What did Iceland get in return? Goodwill and projects. "Goodwill towards Iceland and the geothermal knowledge that we offer, after the training, has thus often led to projects for the companies." 21
22 For example, Iceland GeoSurvey ISOR signed a contract with Emerging Power in 2014 to do exploration in Montelago, Mindoro - 50-60 resistivity soundings, mapping, 44 MW planned. Iceland also runs a Technical Assistance Programme - Ministry for Foreign Affairs keeps list of experts in geothermal energy, hydropower, fisheries, gender equality. Experts are hired by the World Bank, FAO, UNEP for projects. Most projects are 50-200 hours, funded by Iceland. Why does this matter for desalination? Because geothermal gives you baseload electricity. RO needs 24/7. Solar energy does not. Wind energy does not. Geothermal does - 90% capacity factor. It is like a power plant that never sleeps. The Philippines is the 3rd largest geothermal producer. We have Leyte (700 MW), Mak-Ban (400 MW), Tiwi (200 MW), Negros, Mindanao. These fields are in Visayas, near Cebu and Iloilo.
If we rehabilitate them and build new ones, we can wheel power via submarine cable to desalination plants. Iceland now tests geothermal-powered desalination in Reykjavik - engineers monitor mineral scalability, pressure stability, energy conversion efficiency. If successful, this model may work for Chile, Japan, Kenya and the Philippines. Lesson: the Philippines does not need to invent geothermal. We helped invent it with Iceland. We have the people. We need to send a new batch to GRÓ-GTP for desalination-geothermal hybrid, and we need to keep Leyte running. If we do, we can have the cheapest baseload for RO. 23
Second Fuel: Sun and Gas If geothermal is the best baseload, what is second best? There are two answers, depending on what you value. If you value cheapest kilowatt-hour, the second best is Solar PV. If you value 24/7 reliability today, the second best is Natural Gas. Let us talk about solar first. In 2010, solar PV cost $0.30/kWh. Today in the Philippines, it costs $0.05-0.07/kWh (P3-4/kWh). Cheapest ever. Saudi Arabia built the first large-scale PV-RO plant in Al Khafji. Why? Because desert has sun, needs water, and PV makes electricity that RO needs. 24
How it works: 1 MWp solar in Cebu makes about 1,500-1,800 MWh per year. RO needs 3.5 kWh/m3. So 1 MWp makes about 400,000-500,000 m3 per year, or about 1,200 m3 per day. For the Iloilo plant needing 66,500 m3/day, you need about 55 MWp solar. That is large but doable - 55 hectares required. Problem: solar only works 5 hours at peak. RO likes to work 24 hours. If you stop RO at night, membranes become foul and bacteria grow. So you have three options: 1. Use grid as battery: sell solar to grid at day, buy at night. Net metering. It is a simple option but it will only work if the grid has geothermal at night. 2. Battery storage: Tesla-type batteries for 6 hours. This will adds 30-40% to the cost since this is not yet cheap in the Philippines. 3. Water storage: Make more water during the day, store in tanks, and use at night. Store water, not electricity. This option may be the cheapest. For Iloilo, you need 30,000 m3 tanks - big but definitely cheaper than batteries. 25
In practice, the best is hybrid: Geothermal at night + Solar by day. You never pay diesel. Why is this important for the general public? Because every rooftop in Cebu and Iloilo can be part of desalination. If you put solar on a mall roof, that electricity can offset RO energy. Some water districts are already discussing "solar-wheeling" - solar farm in inland, desalination at coast, connected by grid. Now let’s talk about natural gas. The Philippines has Malampaya, off Palawan, producing natural gas since 2001. It powers 40% of Luzon. But Malampaya is declining. The government is building LNG terminals in Batangas – this may mean importing gas from the US or Australia. Gas combined cycle plant efficiency is 60%, vs diesel at 35%. So gas makes cheaper electricity: P6-8/kWh vs diesel P12-15. 26
For desalination, gas has its advantage: it can ramp fast. If RO needs 10 MW, a gas plant can give 10 MW in 30 minutes. Geothermal takes days to start. Solar cannot guarantee. Also, gas waste heat can be used for thermal desalination MED. If you have gas turbine exhaust at 500°C, you can make steam for MED and make water with higher quality than RO. Middle East does hybrid MSF-RO for that reason - MSF makes very pure water, RO makes cheaper water, mix them. For the Philippines, gas is pragmatic second best because: - We have it now, while new geothermal takes 5-7 years to drill. - It is cleaner than coal - half CO2, no ash. - It can be located near coast where desalination is. Downside: price volatility. In 2022, LNG price went from $8 to $30 per MMBtu due to the Ukraine war. If you lock desalination to LNG, water tariff becomes volatile. Geothermal and solar are price-locked for 25 years - no fuel. 27
Also, gas is mostly in Luzon. To help Cebu/Iloilo, you need LNG terminal in Visayas, or stronger Visayas- Mindanao grid interconnection. Other fuels? Wind: Good in Ilocos, Guimaras, but capacity factor 25-30% vs solar 18% vs geothermal 90%. This is not ideal for baseload RO unless it is hybrid. Hydro: Good baseload, but most hydro is in mountains far from the coast. Nuclear: Technically. the best - floating nuclear + RO at $0.80/m3 total cost, as studied by IAEA. One 100 MW small modular reactor can make 200,000 m3/day + power. But the Philippines has no nuclear law yet, and the public still remember the fear from Bataan. So for the general public, remember: - Cheapest in the long-term: Geothermal + Solar + RO + water tanks - Fastest reliable today: Natural Gas + RO 28
- The most future-proof: Solar + battery + RO (when batteries get cheap) Iloilo is trying to combine all: geothermal from grid + solar + waste-to-energy. 29
Third Fuel, First in Iloilo: Waste-to-Energy This chapter is new, because as of February 2025, Iloilo made it real. When Metro Pacific Water Solutions broke ground for Philippines' largest desalination plant in Iloilo City - 66,500 cubic meters per day, P5.5 billion - the CFO Jose Mari Lazo said something unexpected: "The consumption would be about more or less 90 percent domestic while the 10 percent would go to commercial... We're exhausting all measures to make sure that this is affordable... There's a project in Iloilo that turns waste to energy, and the output will be utilized..." Translation: Iloilo City has 470 tons of garbage per day. It goes to Calahunan landfill, which is almost full. Instead of dumping, they will build a 3.5 MW waste-to- energy facility, and its electricity will power part of the desalination plant. 30
This is not incineration like open burning. Modern waste-to-energy is gasification or controlled combustion at 850-1,000°C with filters that capture dioxins. How does it work for desalination? Two ways: First, the simplest: Waste → electricity → RO. 470 tons/day × 0.5 MWh/ton = ~235 MWh/day = 9.8 MW theoretical, but with efficiency losses, 3.5 MW as announced. At 3.5 kWh/m3, 3.5 MW makes 24,000 m3 per day if run 24 hours. That is about one third of Iloilo plant's needs. The rest will come from the grid. Second, more efficient: Waste → heat + electricity → MED + RO. Waste heat after power generation can run low-temperature desalination. Research shows waste heat can be converted via Organic Rankine Cycle to electricity for RO, or directly used for MED. Some studies show waste gases from refineries can save $1,136 per hour when used for hybrid MSF-MED. 31
Why is this brilliant for the Philippines? Because it solves two problems that LGUs pay for separately. Problem 1: Garbage. Metro Manila generates 9,500 tons/day. Cebu City 600 tons. Iloilo 470. We pay P800- 1,200 per ton to haul and dump. Landfills in Rizal, Cebu Consolacion, Iloilo Calahunan are filling, causing floods when garbage clogs drains. Problem 2: Water. We pay P5.5 billion for desalination plant, plus P3.5 million per day for energy if diesel. If you connect them, garbage tipping fee subsidizes water. Instead of paying to dump, you pay to make power to make water. For the general public, think of it like piggery: pig waste → biogas → powers water pump. Same idea, city scale. Is it possible elsewhere? Yes, but scale matters. - Manila: 9,500 tons/day could make 40-50 MW, enough for 200,000-300,000 m3/day desalination - enough for Navotas-Malabon water. 32
- Cebu: 600 tons/day → 4-5 MW → 25,000 m3/day. - Davao: 600 tons → similar. But there are challenges, which the next chapter covers. For Iloilo, 3.5 MW WtE is perfect size: it matches city's waste, solves landfill lifespan, and provides 25-30% of desalination energy with renewable label - because biomass portion is considered renewable under RA 9513. It also gives a political story: A mayor can say, "We turned your garbage problem into water." That is powerful during El Niño when people complain about both garbage smell and water cutoff. Globally, there are examples: Singapore's Tuas desalination plant is co-located with power plant and waste incineration. Stockholm's waste-to-energy powers desalination for islands. For the Philippines, Iloilo is the pilot. If it proves affordable, expect copycats. 33
One more futuristic idea: Microbial desalination cells. These use bacteria to eat wastewater organics, generate electricity (0.1 to 23 watts/m2), and desalinate at same time, with 97% organics removal. This is still lab scale, but imagine: sewage → clean water + electricity + desalinated water. Perfect for Manila Bay. So fuel is not just fuel - it is circular economy. Waste that was problem becomes energy that becomes water. 34
Why Metro Manila is Stuck If waste-to-energy for desalination is so good, why is it Iloilo first, not Metro Manila, which has 20 times more garbage? Answer: law, fear, and 17 mayors. Legal barrier is the biggest. The Philippines has two laws that were written with good intentions but now block clean technology. RA 8749, Clean Air Act of 1999, Section 20: "Ban on Incineration - Incineration, hereby defined as the burning of municipal, bio-chemical and hazardous wastes, which process emits poisonous and toxic fumes, is hereby prohibited." RA 9003, Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000: says best practice excludes incineration, mandates segregation, recycling, composting. 35
Environmental groups love these laws. Ecowaste Coalition says: "They are right in telling concerned authorities to focus on real solutions, not on deceptive techno-fixes." They argue WtE burns resources that should be recycled. But technology has changed since 1999. In 1999, incineration meant open burning, dioxins, black smoke. In 2025, modern WtE has filters, scrubbers, continuous emissions monitoring, EU standards - dioxins <0.1 ng/Nm3, same as Sweden. The Supreme Court in 2002 in MMDA v Jancom said the Clean Air Act does not prohibit incineration as mode of disposal, except burning which emits poisonous and toxic fumes. Modern WtE does not emit those if operated well. DENR in 2016 issued guidelines allowing certain WtE technologies. But contradiction remains: law says ban, guidelines say allow. Every project can be sued. 36
Result: No bank wants to fund P10 billion WtE in Manila if NGO can get court injunction citing Clean Air Act. Iloilo project frames itself as "biomass" and "eco- friendly, clean processes" to avoid word incineration. Second barrier: public fear. Manila remembers Smokey Mountain. In 2025, when Japanese-Philippine consortium proposed P26-B WtE in Smokey Mountain, residents protested: health risks, dioxins, furans, mercury. News headline: "Smokey Mountain residents protest P26-B WTE project, cite health risks." People think WtE = Smokey Mountain + smoke. They do not know Stockholm has WtE in city center with no smell. Third: waste quality. Manila waste is 50% wet food, 30% recyclables, only 20% true combustible. Moisture content is 45-60%. To burn efficiently, you need calorific value 2,200 kcal/kg. 37
Manila waste is 1,500-1,800. You need pre-sorting MRF (materials recovery facility) and drying, which costs P1,000-1,500/ton extra. Segregation at source is required by RA 9003, but compliance in NCR is <30%. Barangays do not segregate. So WtE plant gets mixed waste, clogs, produces slag. Fourth: economics and 17 LGUs. Metro Manila is not one city. It is 17 cities + MMDA. Each has its own hauling contractor. Contractors profit from hauling garbage far to Rizal landfill - more distance, more fee. WtE plant near city cuts distance, but cuts contractor profit. So the contractor lobbies against it. Tipping fee: Manila LGUs pay P800-1,200/ton to landfill. Modern WtE needs P1,500-2,500/ton to be viable (to pay for filters). No mayor wants to double garbage fee before election. 38
Power price: WtE power P7-10/kWh, solar P3-4. MERALCO will not buy WtE at P7 unless subsidized as RE. But RA 9513 defines WtE as only biodegradable treatment, not incineration, so FIT eligibility unclear. Fifth: no integrated planning. Iloilo has one mayor, one landfill, one water problem, one solution: MPIC + City Gov partnership. Manila has 17 mayors, MMDA with no power to force, MWSS for water, DENR for environment, DOE for energy. No one agency can say "let us put WtE + desalination in Navotas to solve garbage + water for CAMANAVA." What would unlock Manila? 1. Amend RA 8749 Sec 20 and RA 9003 to explicitly allow clean WtE with EU emission standards. Several bills have been filed, e.g., Waste-to-Energy Act, but these are stuck in Congress due to NGO opposition. 2. Start small: biogas from food waste markets (Balintawak, Divisoria) → gas engine → small RO for Baseco, Navotas. Less scary than incineration, proves concept. 39
3. Create Manila Bay Water-Energy Hub: Put WtE + RO at old Smokey Mountain or Navotas fish port - industrial area, near sea, near waste source, near water- scarce CAMANAVA. Use tipping fee to subsidize water. 4. Tie to El Niño narrative: During super El Niño, dams drop, La Mesa water level is low. If we have WtE- RO, we have water that does not depend on rain. That is resilience. Until then, Manila will keep hauling garbage to Rizal (costly, causes truck emissions) and keep relying on Angat Dam (vulnerable to El Niño). Iloilo shows there is another way. Lesson: technology is ready, money is ready (MPIC is private), but law and politics are not. For the general public, you can help by segregating waste, and asking your mayor: where does our garbage go, and can it make water? 40
A Playbook for Super El Niño PAGASA says super El Niño will come more often. Last ones: 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24. Each time, Angat Dam dropped below 180 meters, water rationing in Manila, crops failed in Mindanao. What if next super El Niño is 2027-28? Are we ready? Cebu and Iloilo decided not to wait. Their playbook is useful for the whole Philippines. Here is an 8-step playbook for LGUs, water districts, and citizens: Step 1: Know your water. Do water audit. How much come from groundwater? How much from rivers? How much is salty? Cebu found 30% wells are salty. Iloilo found watershed can supply only half of demand. You cannot manage what you do not measure. Step 2: Save first. Non-revenue water in Philippines is 30-50% - leaks, illegal connections. . 41
Before building desalination at P70/m3, fix leaks at P10/m3. Manila Water reduced NRW from 63% to 12% - best in Asia. Copy that. Step 3: Build modular RO, not mega. Do not build 100 MLD at once. Build 5-10 MLD modules like MEZ2 (5 MLD) and Cordova (20 MLD). Add as population grows. This reduces capital risk. And use RO, not MSF/MED - RO is $0.80/m3 vs $1.35 for MSF. Step 4: Power RO with cheapest baseload you have. Rank: - If you have geothermal within 200 km (Leyte for Cebu, Negros for Iloilo, Mindanao for Davao): use geothermal. Baseload, 90% factor, P5-6/kWh. This is why Iceland-Kenya-Philippines training matters - keep those fields alive. - If you have 400+ tons/day waste in one city: consider WtE → RO like Iloilo. 470 tons → 3.5 MW → 15,000-20,000 m3/day. Solves landfill too. - If you have the sun: Solar PV + water tanks. Make more water during day, store water, not electricity. Cheaper than batteries. 1 MWp solar ≈ 1,200 m3/day. 42
- Natural gas as bridge: P6-8/kWh, dispatchable, but volatile price. - Best: Hybrid. Iloilo model: grid geothermal at night + solar by day + WtE base. Never pay diesel P12-15. Step 5: Store water, not just make it. RO can run at 70% at night when power is cheap. Build elevated tanks. During El Niño, you need 3-5 days storage. Step 6: Handle brine properly. DENR requires diffusers, dilution, not near marine sanctuaries. Iloilo plant with SUEZ uses careful outfall design. Do not repeat mistakes of Middle East dumping brine harming corals. Step 7: Fix the laws. For Metro Manila and other cities to copy Iloilo WtE-RO, we need to amend Clean Air Act Sec 20 and RA 9003 to allow clean WtE with EU emission standards. Support bills in Congress. We also need to define WtE as RE under RA 9513 to get FIT. Step 8: Train people. The Philippines sent 29-31 engineers to Iceland's GRÓ-GTP since 1979, fully funded. First two from PNOC-EDC. 43
We need new batch trained in geothermal + desalination hybrid, solar + RO integration, WtE operation. DOE and DOST should nominate 2-3 per year. For ordinary citizen, what can we do? - Segregate waste. Wet waste lowers WtE efficiency. If you segregate, WtE works, water gets cheaper. - Support water tariff that reflects true cost. Desalination at P70/m3 sounds expensive, but trucking water at P150 is more expensive. Willingness to pay for 24/7 water is key. - Ask your water district: what is your El Niño plan? Do you have desalination in your plan? Where will energy come from? Final thought: Philippines is not water-scarce. We have 2,400 mm rain, 7,641 islands surrounded by sea. We are energy-scarce and management-scarce. If we solve energy problem with geothermal, solar, waste, we solve water. And water that does not depend on rain is the best insurance against super El Niño. 44
Cebu and Iloilo showed it is possible. Iloilo showed waste can become water. Iceland showed a poor country can become geothermal superpower. Kenya showed a developing country can do it too. The Philippines already has geothermal, has sun, has waste, has sea, and has 29 engineers trained in Iceland. We have everything. We just need to connect them. That is the story we need to tell before the next super El Niño hits. 45
Epilogue: What You Can Do If you read this small book up to here, you are probably not an engineer. You are a teacher, student, barangay official, hotel owner, or just someone who experienced water cutoff during El Niño. What can you do? If you are a mayor or water district manager: Visit Iloilo desalination plant when it opens in 2027. Talk to Metro Pacific Water and SUEZ. Ask about energy mix. Copy their playbook: modular RO + hybrid energy + water storage. And send your engineer to Iceland's GRÓ- GTP - it is fully funded. If you are a student: Consider geothermal engineering, water engineering. Philippines needs them. The 29 Filipinos who went to Iceland since 1979 now lead EDC and DOE. You can be next. 46
If you are an ordinary citizen: Segregate waste. Support desalination even if tariff goes up P5. Because alternative during El Niño is no water. And ask: where does our garbage go? Can it make water? If you are an investor: Waste-to-energy + desalination is new asset class. Iloilo P5.5B private investment shows it is bankable. Super El Niño will come. Question is not if, but when. And when it comes, will we have water that does not depend on rain? The sea is there. The heat under our feet is there. The sun above is there. Even our garbage is there. We just need to turn them into water. Maraming salamat. 47