Draft Report WIN17 (17082026)
Laporan ini menyajikan riset dan analisis terhadap 17 saham pilihan WINvestasi Nusantara. Laporan ini mencakup metodologi seleksi, valuasi, profil risiko, serta pemantauan kinerja saham secara terstruktur. Disusun sebagai referensi analisis dan edukasi untuk membantu memahami peluang investasi dengan pendekatan yang lebih disiplin dan berbasis data.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 1 INVESTMENT RESEARCH NOTICE • BILINGUAL EDITION DISCLAIMER WIN17 merupakan hasil riset internal dan pemodelan valuasi untuk keperluan analisis dan edukasi. Seluruh target harga, Estimated PER, gap, dan skenario Bear/Bull adalah keluaran model yang bergantung pada asumsi tertentu dan dapat berbeda secara material dari hasil sebenarnya. Dokumen ini bukan rekomendasi, ajakan, maupun penawaran membeli/menjual efek, dan bukan nasihat investasi personal. Keputusan investasi sepenuhnya tanggung jawab masing-masing investor. Apresiasi Pengembangan WIN17 WIN17 dibagikan terbuka untuk edukasi investasi. Apabila bermanfaat bagi Anda, apresiasi sukarela dapat diberikan melalui QRIS di bawah (opsional, tidak mengubah hak penggunaan dokumen). WIN17 is the product of internal research and valuation modelling for analytical and educational purposes. All price targets, Estimated PER figures, gaps, and Bear/Bull scenarios are model outputs contingent on specific assumptions and may differ materially from actual outcomes. This document is not a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security, and is not personalised investment advice. Every investment decision rests entirely with the individual investor. Supporting WIN17 WIN17 is shared openly for investment education. If you find it useful, voluntary support may be provided through the QRIS below (optional and does not alter the right to use this document).
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 2 ANNUAL-REPORT STYLE • BILINGUAL EDITION DAFTAR ISI TABLE OF CONTENTS BAHASA INDONESIA ENGLISH HAL. DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER 1 DAFTAR TABEL LIST OF TABLES 4 DAFTAR GAMBAR LIST OF FIGURES 5 BAGIAN I · White Paper Riset Ekuitas WIN17 PART I · WIN17 Equity Research White Paper 6 1. Ringkasan Eksekutif 1. Executive Summary 6 2. Mengapa WIN17? 2. Why WIN17? 6 3. Kerangka Seleksi 3. Selection Framework 6 4. Tahap 1: Kelompok Saham Kandidat 4. Stage 1: Candidate Stock Universe 7 5. Tahap 2: Valuasi Forward 5. Stage 2: Forward Valuation 7 6. Tahap 3: Pembentukan WIN17 6. Stage 3: Building WIN17 8 7. Tahap 4: Monitoring 7. Stage 4: Monitoring 8 8. Corong Seleksi 8. Selection Funnel 9 9. Portofolio Final WIN17 9. Final WIN17 Portfolio 9 10. Insight Kunci 10. Key Insights 12 11. Keterbatasan & Informasi Tertunda 11. Limitations & Pending Information 12 BAGIAN II · Metodologi Indeks WIN17 v1.0 PART II · WIN17 Index Methodology v1.0 13 1. Identitas & Tujuan Indeks 1. Index Identity & Objectives 14 2. Prinsip Metodologi 2. Methodology Principles 14 3. Tata Kelola Indeks 3. Index Governance 15 4. Cakupan dan Kriteria Kelayakan Saham 4. Universe & Stock Eligibility Criteria 15 5. Metodologi Seleksi & Valuasi 5. Selection & Valuation Methodology 15 6. Klasifikasi Layer 6. Layer Classification 16 7. Pembobotan Capped FFMC 7. Capped FFMC Weighting 17 8. Formula Indeks & Divisor 8. Index Formula & Divisor 17 9. Rebalancing & Rekonstitusi 9. Rebalancing & Reconstitution 18 10. Corporate Action & Kejadian Khusus 10. Corporate Actions & Special Events 18 11. Evaluasi Kinerja & Benchmark 11. Performance Evaluation & Benchmark 18 12. Batasan & Disclaimer Indeks 12. Index Limitations & Disclaimer 20 Lampiran A: Konstituen & Bobot Dasar Appendix A: Constituents & Base Weights 21 Lampiran B: Seri Harian WIN17 Appendix B: WIN17 Daily Series 22 Lampiran C: Kontribusi Konstituen Appendix C: Constituent Contribution 23 Lampiran D: Input Model Estimated PER Appendix D: Estimated PER Model Inputs 24 Lampiran E: Sumber Data & Asumsi Appendix E: Data Sources & Assumptions 25 BAGIAN III · Laporan 17 Saham PART III · 17 Stock Reports —
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 3 DAFTAR TABEL LIST OF TABLES BAHASA INDONESIA ENGLISH HAL. Tabel 1. Perbandingan Screening Konvensional dan Kerangka WIN17 Table 1. Comparison of Conventional Screening and the WIN17 Framework 6 Tabel 2. Tahapan Proses Seleksi WIN17 Table 2. WIN17 Selection Process Stages 7 Tabel 3. Enam Input Pembentuk Estimated PER Table 3. Six Inputs Used to Build the Estimated PER 8 Tabel 4. Komposisi Saham per Layer WIN17 Table 4. WIN17 Stock Composition by Layer 8 Tabel 5. Metrik dan Target Valuasi Portofolio WIN17 Table 5. WIN17 Portfolio Valuation Metrics and Targets 10 Tabel 6. Rasionale Investasi Konstituen WIN17 Table 6. Investment Rationale for WIN17 Constituents 11 Tabel 7. Insight Kunci Portofolio WIN17 Table 7. Key Insights from the WIN17 Portfolio 12 Tabel 8. Keterbatasan dan Informasi Tertunda Table 8. Limitations and Pending Information 12 Tabel 9. Profil Metodologi Resmi WIN17 Table 9. WIN17 Official Methodology Profile 13 Tabel 10. Ringkasan Parameter Utama Indeks WIN17 Table 10. Summary of Key WIN17 Index Parameters 13 Tabel 11. Identitas dan Tujuan Indeks WIN17 Table 11. WIN17 Index Identity and Objectives 14 Tabel 12. Prinsip Metodologi dan Penerapannya Table 12. Methodology Principles and Their Application 14 Tabel 13. Komponen dan Bobot Skor Multi-Faktor Table 13. Components and Weights of the Multi-Factor Score 16 Tabel 14. Klasifikasi dan Fungsi Layer Table 14. Layer Classification and Function 16 Tabel 15. Jadwal Review dan Rebalancing WIN17 Table 15. WIN17 Review and Rebalancing Schedule 18 Tabel 16. Perlakuan Aksi Korporasi dan Kejadian Khusus Table 16. Treatment of Corporate Actions and Special Events 18 Tabel 17. Perbandingan Kinerja WIN17, IHSG, dan LQ45 Table 17. Performance Comparison of WIN17, IHSG and LQ45 18 Tabel 18. Konstituen dan Bobot Dasar WIN17 Table 18. WIN17 Constituents and Base Weights 21 Tabel 19. Bobot Dasar WIN17 per Layer Table 19. WIN17 Base Weights by Layer 21 Tabel 20. Seri Harian WIN17 (Restated) Table 20. WIN17 Daily Series (Restated) 22 Tabel 21. Kontribusi Konstituen WIN17 Table 21. WIN17 Constituent Contribution 23 Tabel 22. Input Model Estimated PER per Konstituen Table 22. Estimated PER Model Inputs by Constituent 24 Tabel 23. Sumber Data dan Asumsi Table 23. Data Sources and Assumptions 25
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 4 DAFTAR GAMBAR LIST OF FIGURES BAHASA INDONESIA ENGLISH HAL. Gambar 1. Corong seleksi WIN17: ±300 saham → 65 hasil screening → kelompok kandidat → Top 20 → WIN17 (Layer 1–4) → monitoring Figure 1. WIN17 selection funnel: ±300 stocks → 65 screened stocks → candidate universe → Top 20 → WIN17 (Layers 1–4) → monitoring 9 Gambar 2. Return kumulatif WIN17, IHSG, dan LQ45 — sejak 30 Jun 2026 Figure 2. Cumulative return of WIN17, IHSG and LQ45, since 30 Jun 2026 19 Gambar 3. Return harian WIN17, IHSG, dan LQ45 (1 Jul – 10 Agu 2026) Figure 3. Daily returns of WIN17, IHSG and LQ45 (1 Jul – 10 Aug 2026) 19
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 5 BAGIAN I PART I White Paper Riset Ekuitas WIN17 WIN17 Equity Research White Paper Metodologi seleksi & konstruksi portofolio 17 saham. WIN17 Equity Research White Paper — Selection & Portfolio Construction Methodology. 1. Ringkasan Eksekutif 1. Executive Summary WIN17 adalah portofolio 17 saham yang dibangun dari kelompok saham kandidat melalui analisis valuasi forward: kandidat diperingkat berdasarkan valuation gap, dan 17 gap terbesar membentuk portofolio, disusun dalam empat layer prioritas untuk penempatan bertahap. WIN17 is a 17-stock portfolio drawn from a defined candidate universe through forward valuation: candidates are ranked by valuation gap, and the seventeen widest gaps form the book, staged into four priority layers for phased deployment. Mesin valuasi bertumpu pada satu metrik: selisih antara Current PER (30 Juni 2026) dan Estimated PER — tingkat PER wajar forward per saham, dengan pita skenario Bear/Bull simetris ±15% terhadap base case. The valuation engine turns on one measure: the distance between Current PER (30 Jun 2026) and a forward ‘fair’ Estimated PER, framed by a symmetric ±15% Bear/Bull band. Sorotan Investasi Investment Highlights Portofolio 17 saham tersebar di 8 sektor; Financials memimpin (5 nama), diikuti Consumer Staples (4). Seventeen names across eight sectors — led by Financials (five) and Consumer Staples (four). Ke-17 saham disusun dalam empat layer prioritas pada Daily Monitoring untuk penempatan bertahap. The seventeen are staged into four priority layers for phased deployment. Seluruh posisi dipantau mingguan terhadap Estimated Price yang diturunkan dari gap valuasi. Every position is tracked weekly against an Estimated Price derived from the valuation gap. 2. Mengapa WIN17? 2. Why WIN17? Screening saham konvensional berhenti pada “murah secara absolut” — PER atau PBV rendah terhadap satu ambang. WIN17 berangkat lebih jauh: menormalkan tingkat wajar per saham, menguji ketahanannya lewat skenario, lalu menempatkan posisi secara berlapis sesuai prioritas. Conventional screens stop at absolute cheapness — a low multiple against a single cut-off. WIN17 normalises fair value stock by stock, stress-tests it through scenarios, then deploys the book in priority layers. Tabel 1. Perbandingan Screening Konvensional dan Kerangka WIN17 | Table 1. Comparison of Conventional Screening and the WIN17 Framework Dimensi Dimension Screening Konvensional Conventional Screening Kerangka WIN17 WIN17 Framework Ukuran “murah” Measure of “cheapness” Absolut — PER/PBV rendah vs. ambang tunggal Absolute — low PER/PBV versus a single threshold Relatif — Current PER vs. Estimated PER wajar per saham Relative — Current PER versus a fair per-stock Estimated PER Tingkat wajar Fair value level Peer mentah, satu angka Raw peer multiple, one figure Estimated PER ternormalisasi dari 6 input per saham Normalised Estimated PER from six per-stock inputs Skenario Scenario Titik tunggal Single point Pita Bear/Bull ±15% sebagai uji ketahanan A ±15% Bear/Bull band as a resilience test Penempatan Deployment Bobot seragam / tak terstruktur Equal / unstructured weights 4 layer prioritas untuk penempatan bertahap Four priority layers for phased deployment 3. Kerangka Seleksi 3. Selection Framework Proses berjalan sebagai empat tahap dengan input, aturan, dan output yang jelas — dari kelompok saham kandidat hingga pemantauan portofolio. Four stages carry the process from the candidate universe to portfolio monitoring, each with a defined input, rule, and output.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 6 Tabel 2. Tahapan Proses Seleksi WIN17 | Table 2. WIN17 Selection Process Stages Tahap Stage Aturan / Proses Rule / Process Output Sumber Source 1 65 saham hasil screening fundamental + 54 konstituen MSCI (deduplikasi) 65 fundamentally screened stocks + 54 MSCI constituents (deduplicated) Kelompok kandidat Candidate universe AUG–JAN 2026 2 Gap = Estimated PER ÷ Current PER − 1; peringkat menurun Gap = Estimated PER ÷ Current PER − 1; ranked in descending order Top 20 (kandidat antara) BIG 20 Choice 3 17 gap terbesar; disusun dalam 4 layer prioritas The 17 widest gaps; organised into four priority layers WIN17 — 17 saham WIN17 — 17 stocks Daily Monitoring 4 Pemantauan mingguan harga vs. Estimated Price Weekly monitoring of price versus Estimated Price Template monitoring Monitoring template Daily Monitoring 𝐺𝑎𝑝 = 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝐸𝑅 − 1 𝐵𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 0,85 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐵𝑢𝑙𝑙 = 1,15 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝑃∗ = 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝐸𝑅 P* = Estimated Price. 𝐺𝑎𝑝 = 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝐸𝑅 − 1 𝐵𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 0.85 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐵𝑢𝑙𝑙 = 1.15 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝑃∗ = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝐸𝑅 P* = Estimated Price. Screening fundamental yang menghasilkan daftar 65 saham berada di hulu proses ini; parameternya dipelihara pada berkas tersendiri dan tidak dimuat dalam workbook ini. The fundamental screen behind the 65-stock list sits upstream of this workbook; its parameters live in a separate file and are not contained here. 4. Tahap 1: Kelompok Saham Kandidat 4. Stage 1: Candidate Stock Universe Kelompok kandidat adalah gabungan daftar 65 saham hasil screening fundamental dan 54 konstituen MSCI Indonesia; saham pada kedua daftar dievaluasi satu kali melalui deduplikasi (referensi MSCI dipertahankan untuk saham dual-listed). The universe combines the 65-stock fundamentally-screened list with the 54 MSCI Indonesia constituents; dual-listed names are evaluated once, keeping the MSCI reference. 5. Tahap 2: Valuasi Forward 5. Stage 2: Forward Valuation Setiap kandidat dinilai pada ruang multiple: menetapkan Estimated PER wajar per saham lalu mengukur jarak Current PER terhadapnya. Top 20 adalah 20 gap terbesar dan berfungsi sebagai daftar kandidat antara. Each candidate is assessed in multiple space: set a fair Estimated PER, then measure how far Current PER sits below it. The Top 20 are the twenty largest gaps and serve as an intermediate shortlist. Konstruksi Estimated PER Building the Estimated PER Estimated PER dibentuk dari enam input per saham. Alih-alih memproyeksi EPS absolut, sistem menormalkan tingkat PER wajar lalu membandingkannya dengan PER berjalan. The fair multiple is assembled from six per-stock inputs — a defensible PER level normalised and measured against the market, rather than a forecast of absolute earnings. Tabel 3. Enam Input Pembentuk Estimated PER | Table 3. Six Inputs Used to Build the Estimated PER Input Rentang Top 20 Top 20 Range Fungsi Function PER Peer Bersih Clean Peer PER 5,89 – 25,35 PER peer sektor bebas outlier — basis pembanding Outlier-free sector peer PER — comparison base PER Jangkar Sektor Sector Anchor PER 8,0 – 17,0 Jangkar struktural sektor Structural sector anchor Estimasi Pertumbuhan EPS Forward Est. Forward EPS Growth 2,5% – 12,0% Pertumbuhan berhak atas multiple lebih tinggi Growth warrants a higher multiple Pengali Kualitas Quality Multiplier 0,55 – 1,30 Premi/diskon kualitas, sejalan ROE Quality premium/discount, aligned with ROE Pengali Pertumbuhan Growth Multiplier 0,85 – 1,15 Premi/diskon profil pertumbuhan Growth-profile premium/discount Pengali Makro Macro Multiplier 0,92 (seragam) Haircut makro 8% merata ke seluruh kandidat Uniform 8% macro haircut across all candidates Pengali Risiko Khusus Special Risk Multiplier 1,00 (SRTG 0,90; ERAA 0,95) Diskon risiko idiosinkratik per saham Per-stock idiosyncratic risk discount
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 7 Pita ±15% menguji ketahanan tesis. Kandidat terbaik tetap undervalued bahkan pada Bear — JPFA (Current 4,49x vs Bear 8,51x) dan KLBF (9,38x vs 21,48x) contohnya. The ±15% band is a stress test. The strongest names stay cheap even at the bear multiple — JPFA (4.49x vs 8.51x) and KLBF (9.38x vs 21.48x) among them. 6. Tahap 3: Pembentukan WIN17 6. Stage 3: Building WIN17 WIN17 adalah 17 gap valuasi terbesar dari kelompok kandidat, disusun dalam empat layer prioritas — dari gap tertinggi hingga terendah — sebagai urutan penempatan dan pemantauan. Seluruh 17 saham tetap menjadi bagian portofolio dan dipantau bersama. WIN17 is the seventeen widest valuation gaps, organised into four priority layers from widest to narrowest as an order of deployment and monitoring. All seventeen remain part of the portfolio and are monitored together. Tabel 4. Komposisi Saham per Layer WIN17 | Table 4. WIN17 Stock Composition by Layer Layer Saham Stocks Layer 1 KLBF · JPFA · INKP · BMRI · SRTG Layer 2 TKIM · TOWR · AADI · ERAA · AUTO Layer 3 SIMP · BBTN · CTRA · CPIN · BBNI Layer 4 BBRI · LSIP 7. Tahap 4: Monitoring 7. Stage 4 — Monitoring Setelah portofolio terbentuk, harga dipantau mingguan terhadap Estimated Price per saham (= Harga saat ini × Estimated PER ÷ Current PER), menerjemahkan gap valuasi langsung menjadi target apresiasi yang dipantau seiring waktu. Once set, prices are tracked weekly against a per-stock Estimated Price (= current price × Estimated PER ÷ Current PER), translating the valuation gap directly into a monitored price objective.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 8 8. Corong Seleksi 8. Selection Funnel Gambar 1. Corong seleksi WIN17: ±300 saham → 65 hasil screening → kelompok kandidat → Top 20 → WIN17 (Layer 1–4) → monitoring. Figure 1. WIN17 selection funnel: ±300 stocks → 65 screened stocks → candidate universe → Top 20 → WIN17 (Layers 1–4) → monitoring. 9. Portofolio Final WIN17 9. Final WIN17 Portfolio Portofolio final 17 saham tersebar di 8 sektor. Financials memimpin dengan 5 nama, diikuti Consumer Staples (4), Materials (2), dan Consumer Discretionary (2), serta masing- masing satu nama di Health Care, Communication Services, Energy, dan Real Estate. The final 17-stock portfolio spans eight sectors. Financials leads with five names, followed by Consumer Staples (4), Materials (2) and Consumer Discretionary (2), with one apiece in Health Care, Communication Services, Energy and Real Estate. 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 = 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡. 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐺𝑎𝑝 = 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑎 − 1 Confidence: Medium (SRTG Medium-Low). 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 × 𝐸𝑠𝑡. 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝐸𝑅 𝐺𝑎𝑝 = 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 − 1 Confidence: Medium (SRTG Medium-Low).
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 9 Tabel 5. Metrik dan Target Valuasi Portofolio WIN17 | Table 5. WIN17 Portfolio Valuation Metrics and Targets L Ticker Sektor Sector Harga Price PER Kini Cur.PER Estimasi PER Est.PER Bear Bull Target Gap ROE 1 KLBF Health Care 785 9,38 25,27 21,48 29,06 2.001 +154,9% 16,0% 1 JPFA Cons. Staples 2.210 4,49 10,01 8,51 11,51 4.680 +111,8% 33,0% 1 INKP Materials 8.375 5,16 9,44 8,02 10,86 13.686 +63,4% 8,8% 1 BMRI Financials 4.180 5,52 9,55 8,12 10,99 5.268 +26,0% 19,6% 1 SRTG Financials 1.830 1,17 6,37 5,41 7,32 8.657 +373,1% 12,4% 2 TKIM Materials 7.150 3,68 9,44 8,02 10,86 13.852 +93,7% 9,4% 2 TOWR Comm. Svc. 394 5,73 11,46 9,74 13,17 728 +84,8% 13,2% 2 AADI Energy 9.175 5,39 9,06 7,70 10,42 13.069 +42,4% 15,0% 2 ERAA Cons. Discr. 458 3,82 8,60 7,31 9,89 788 +72,1% 15,8% 2 AUTO Cons. Discr. 2.800 5,10 8,38 7,12 9,64 3.861 +37,9% 14,6% 3 SIMP Cons. Staples 595 3,96 6,16 5,24 7,08 817 +37,3% 10,1% 3 BBTN Financials 1.235 4,57 7,08 6,01 8,14 1.704 +38,0% 12,0% 3 CTRA Real Estate 615 3,74 5,69 4,84 6,54 844 +37,2% 7,6% 3 CPIN Cons. Staples 3.080 7,53 11,03 9,37 12,68 4.980 +61,7% 28,1% 3 BBNI Financials 3.650 6,18 8,85 7,52 10,17 4.525 +24,0% 13,6% 4 BBRI Financials 3.090 7,02 9,55 8,12 10,99 3.714 +20,2% 18,0% 4 LSIP Cons. Staples 1.450 4,53 6,16 5,24 7,08 1.727 +19,1% 11,8%
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 10 Rasionale per Saham Per-name Rationale Tabel 6. Rasionale Investasi Konstituen WIN17 | Table 6. Investment Rationale for WIN17 Constituents Ticker Emiten Issuer Rasionale Investasi Investment Rationale KLBF Kalbe Farma Bisnis healthcare defensif; gap PER terbesar di kelompok, penyeimbang eksposur siklikal. Defensive healthcare business; the group’s widest PER gap, balancing cyclical exposure. JPFA Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Current PER sangat rendah, ROE tertinggi (33%); upside besar namun siklikal biaya input. Very low Current PER and the highest ROE (33%); substantial upside, but input costs are cyclical. INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Deep value pulp/paper, PER jauh di bawah Estimated PER; ekspor beri lindung nilai valas. Deep-value pulp/paper exposure, with PER far below Estimated PER; exports provide a currency hedge. BMRI Bank Mandiri PER murah vs Estimated PER, ROE tinggi; anchor finansial dengan siklus kredit mendukung. Cheap PER versus Estimated PER and high ROE; a financial anchor supported by the credit cycle. SRTG Saratoga Investama Sedaya PER sangat murah (1,2x), gap terbesar; valuasi holding/NAV perlu divalidasi (Confidence Medium- Low). Very cheap PER (1.2x), the widest gap; holding/NAV valuation requires validation (Confidence Medium-Low). TKIM Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia PER termurah di materials dengan gap tinggi; posisi lebih taktis karena volatilitas earnings. The cheapest PER in materials with a wide gap; a more tactical position due to earnings volatility. TOWR Sarana Menara Nusantara PER rendah vs Estimated PER; arus kas menara stabil, defensif terhadap siklus ekonomi. Low PER versus Estimated PER; stable tower cash flow, defensive against the economic cycle. AADI Adaro Andalan Indonesia Valuasi murah, ROE solid; bobot dibatasi karena risiko harga batu bara. Cheap valuation and solid ROE; weight is constrained by coal-price risk. ERAA Erajaya Swasembada Ritel/distribusi gadget & elektronik; Current PER 3,8x, ROE ~15,8%. Masuk Layer 2 menggantikan SMAR (pleno 23 Jul 2026). Gadget and electronics retail/distribution; Current PER 3.8x, ROE ~15.8%. Entered Layer 2 in place of SMAR (plenary meeting, 23 Jul 2026). AUTO Astra Otoparts Valuasi murah, ROE baik; leverage ke siklus otomotif. Cheap valuation and good ROE; leveraged to the automotive cycle. SIMP Salim Ivomas Pratama Agribisnis CPO terintegrasi; PER 4,0x dengan gap positif; laba siklikal. Integrated CPO agribusiness; PER 4.0x with a positive gap; cyclical earnings. BBTN Bank Tabungan Negara PER murah, gap positif; tactical KPR/properti dengan risiko NIM & kualitas kredit lebih tinggi. Cheap PER and a positive gap; tactical mortgage/property exposure with higher NIM and credit- quality risk. CTRA Ciputra Development PER murah, gap positif; potensi rerating bila suku bunga turun, sensitif terhadap bunga. Cheap PER and a positive gap; rerating potential if interest rates fall, with rate sensitivity. CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Kualitas laba/ROE kuat (28%), gap positif; market leader poultry terintegrasi. Strong earnings quality/ROE (28%) and a positive gap; integrated poultry market leader. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia Diskon PER menarik terhadap Estimated PER; termurah di antara bank besar. Attractive PER discount to Estimated PER; the cheapest among the large banks. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia Valuasi di bawah Estimated PER, ROE kuat; eksposur UMKM memberi growth. Valuation below Estimated PER and strong ROE; MSME exposure provides growth. LSIP PP London Sumatra Indonesia Perkebunan sawit; PER 4,5x dengan gap positif; laba siklikal komoditas. Palm-oil plantation; PER 4.5x with a positive gap; cyclical commodity earnings.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 11 10. Insight Kunci Key Insights Tabel 7. Insight Kunci Portofolio WIN17 | Table 7. Key Insights from the WIN17 Portfolio Insight Penjelasan Explanation Portofolio berlapis A layered book Ke-17 saham disusun dalam 4 layer prioritas; layer atas (gap tertinggi) diprioritaskan penempatannya, sementara seluruhnya tetap dipantau bersama. The 17 stocks are organised into four priority layers; upper layers (widest gaps) receive deployment priority, while all names continue to be monitored together. Murah itu relatif Cheapness is relative Peringkat memakai gap terhadap Estimated PER, bukan PER spot terendah; KLBF (9,4x) bisa bergap lebih besar dari CTRA (3,7x) karena tingkat wajarnya berbeda. Ranking uses the gap to Estimated PER, not the lowest spot PER; KLBF (9.4x) can have a wider gap than CTRA (3.7x) because their fair levels differ. Konservatisme sudah terpasang Pre-loaded Haircut makro 0,92 seragam berarti tiap Estimated PER sudah didiskon 8%. Upside yang dilaporkan adalah upside setelah konservatisme. The uniform 0.92 macro haircut means every Estimated PER is already discounted by 8%. Reported upside is upside after conservatism. Monitoring melekat pada proses Built in Estimated Price per saham menjadi target yang dipantau mingguan, sehingga gap valuasi langsung terhubung ke disiplin harga. The per-stock Estimated Price becomes a weekly monitoring target, directly connecting the valuation gap to price discipline. 11. Keterbatasan & Informasi Tertunda 11. Limitations & Pending Information Item berikut tidak mengubah komposisi 17 saham, tetapi perlu diselesaikan sebelum dokumen dianggap final. None of the items below alter the 17 holdings; each should be closed before the paper is considered final. Tabel 8. Keterbatasan dan Informasi Tertunda | Table 8. Limitations and Pending Information Area Keterangan Description Valuasi berbasis PER PER-based valuation PER tak membedakan kualitas laba; nama siklikal (TKIM, INKP, AADI, SIMP, LSIP) berisiko PER rendah menandai puncak siklus. Mitigasi parsial via multiplier & jangkar sektor. PER does not distinguish earnings quality; for cyclical names (TKIM, INKP, AADI, SIMP, LSIP), a low PER may signal a cycle peak. Partly mitigated through multipliers and sector anchors. Estimated PER tersimpan sebagai nilai Estimated PER stored as a value Enam input ditampilkan (Lampiran A2), tetapi fungsi penggabungnya menjadi Estimated PER tidak tersimpan sebagai formula sel. The six inputs are displayed (Appendix A2), but the function that combines them into Estimated PER is not stored as a cell formula. Referensi harga antar-sheet Cross-sheet price references Gap pada Daily Monitoring memakai Harga & Target-nya sendiri; sebagian berbeda dari gap di BIG 20 Choice akibat Current PER acuan yang berbeda (mis. BMRI +26,0% vs +73,1%). Perlu direkonsiliasi. Daily Monitoring gaps use their own Price and Target; some differ from BIG 20 Choice gaps because they use different Current PER references (e.g., BMRI +26.0% vs +73.1%). Reconciliation is required. Screening fundamental (asal 65 saham) Fundamental screening (source of the 65 stocks) Berada di hulu dan tidak dimuat pada workbook ini; parameter serta daftar hasilnya berada pada berkas screening tersendiri. This sits upstream and is not included in the workbook; its parameters and result list are held in a separate screening file. Pita skenario Scenario band Bear/Bull ±15% seragam, bukan dari volatilitas per saham; risiko siklikal berat mungkin tertaksir sempit. The uniform ±15% Bear/Bull band is not based on per-stock volatility; severe cyclical risk may be understated.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 12 BAGIAN II PART II Metodologi Resmi WIN17 Capped FFMC Price Index Official Methodology — WIN17 Capped Free-Float Adjusted Market-Capitalization Price Index Official Methodology — WIN17 Capped Free-Float Adjusted Market-Capitalization Price Index (v1.0). Tabel 9. Profil Metodologi Resmi WIN17 | Table 9. WIN17 Official Methodology Profile Elemen Element Ketentuan Provision Penyusun Prepared by Winvestasi Nusantara Research Versi Version 1.0 1.0 Tanggal dasar / Nilai dasar Base date / Base value 30 Juni 2026 / 1.000 Metode bobot Weighting method Capped Free Float Adjusted Market Capitalization, batas 10% per konstituen Capped Free-Float Adjusted Market Capitalization, with a 10% limit per constituent Status Berlaku retrospektif sejak 30 Juni 2026; histori dihitung ulang (restatement resmi) Effective retrospectively from 30 June 2026; history recalculated (official restatement) Frekuensi review Review frequency Kuartalan (Maret/Juni/September/Desember, efektif awal bulan berikutnya) Quarterly (March/June/September/December, effective at the start of the following month) Jenis indeks Index type Price Index — dividen tunai tidak direinvestasikan Price Index — cash dividends are not reinvested Persetujuan Approval Komite Indeks WIN17 · Tanggal dokumen 27 Juli 2026 WIN17 Index Committee · Document date 27 July 2026 Ringkasan Eksekutif Indeks Index Executive Summary Seleksi 17 saham tetap ditentukan oleh valuasi dan kualitas fundamental. Bobot portofolio tidak lagi sama rata, tetapi mengikuti kapitalisasi pasar free float yang dibatasi maksimum 10% pada setiap rebalancing. The 17 constituents are still chosen by valuation and fundamental quality. Portfolio weights are no longer equal; they follow free-float market capitalization capped at 10% per name at each rebalancing. Tabel 10. Ringkasan Parameter Utama Indeks WIN17 | Table 10. Summary of Key WIN17 Index Parameters Parameter Hasil Result Konstituen terkena cap awal Constituents subject to the initial cap KLBF, INKP, BMRI, CPIN, BBNI, BBRI Divisor awal Initial divisor 130.505.996.336,23 WIN17 per 10 Agustus 2026 WIN17 as of 10 August 2026 1.114,70 (base 1.000 pada 30 Jun 2026) 1,114.70 (base 1,000 on 30 Jun 2026) Return 30 Jun – 10 Agu 2026 Return, 30 Jun – 10 Aug 2026 WIN17 +9,35% · IHSG +7,29% · LQ45 +7,50% WIN17 unggul 2,07 poin persentase atas IHSG dan 1,85 poin persentase atas LQ45 selama periode pengamatan (perbandingan atas return, metode penjumlahan return harian sheet INDEX — konsisten dengan Laporan Update Pasar WIN17; level IHSG/LQ45 tetap memakai nilai indeks aktual). Seri equal- weight lama tidak lagi menjadi seri resmi — nilai pada dokumen ini adalah hasil restatement v2.0. WIN17 led the IHSG by 2.07 points and the LQ45 by 1.85 points over the period (return comparison, sum-of-daily-returns method on the INDEX sheet — consistent with the WIN17 Market Update Report; benchmark levels continue to use actual index values). The former equal-weight series is no longer official; figures here are the restated v2.0 series.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 13 1. Identitas & Tujuan Indeks 1. Index Identity & Objectives Tabel 11. Identitas dan Tujuan Indeks WIN17 | Table 11. WIN17 Index Identity and Objectives Elemen Element Deskripsi Description Nama resmi Official name WIN17 Capped Free Float Adjusted Market Capitalization Price Index Sponsor riset Research sponsor Winvestasi Nusantara Research Pasar acuan / Mata uang Reference market / Currency Bursa Efek Indonesia / Rupiah Indonesia Stock Exchange / Rupiah Jumlah saham Number of stocks 17 ● Mengukur kinerja harga portofolio 17 saham hasil riset Winvestasi Nusantara. ● Measure the price performance of the 17-stock portfolio produced by Winvestasi Nusantara research. ● Menjadi benchmark yang dapat direplikasi untuk mengevaluasi stock selection dan alokasi bobot. ● Serve as a replicable benchmark for evaluating stock selection and weight allocation. ● Membatasi risiko konsentrasi melalui maksimum bobot 10% pada setiap rebalancing. ● Limit concentration risk through a maximum 10% weight at each rebalancing. ● Menyediakan dasar pengembangan WIN17 Total Return Index dan model portfolio di masa mendatang. ● Provide a foundation for developing a WIN17 Total Return Index and future portfolio models. Ruang lingkup: WIN17 menghitung perubahan harga penutupan konstituen; dividen tunai tidak dimasukkan. Perubahan saham, free float, konstituen, dan aksi korporasi ditangani lewat penyesuaian unit efektif/divisor agar kontinuitas terjaga. Scope: WIN17 measures changes in constituents’ closing prices; cash dividends are excluded. Changes in shares, free float, constituents and corporate actions are handled through effective- unit/divisor adjustments to preserve continuity. 2. Prinsip Metodologi 2. Methodology Principles Tabel 12. Prinsip Metodologi dan Penerapannya | Table 12. Methodology Principles and Their Application Prinsip Principle Penerapan Application Dapat diinvestasikan Investable Bobot memakai saham free float yang tersedia bagi publik Weights use free-float shares available to the public Seleksi berbasis valuasi Valuation-led selection Keputusan masuk/keluar indeks ditentukan oleh valuasi & kualitas fundamental Index entry/exit decisions are determined by valuation and fundamental quality Representasi berbatas Capped representation FFMC menentukan bobot, dengan cap 10% untuk diversifikasi FFMC determines weights, with a 10% cap for diversification Transparan & dapat direplikasi Transparent & Replicable Formula, tanggal acuan, dan data input didokumentasikan agar dapat direkonstruksi pihak independen The formula, reference dates and input data are documented so an independent party can reconstruct the index Berkelanjutan Continuous Divisor disesuaikan agar corporate action tidak menciptakan return semu The divisor is adjusted so corporate actions do not create artificial returns Bertata kelola Governed Perubahan konstituen & metodologi diputuskan melalui Komite Indeks dengan audit trail Constituent and methodology changes are decided through the Index Committee with an audit trail 3. Tata Kelola Indeks 3. Index Governance Komite Indeks WIN17 bertanggung jawab atas review konstituen, validasi data, penanganan kejadian luar biasa, dan publikasi metodologi; keputusan material didokumentasikan (sumber, perhitungan, alasan, tanggal efektif). The WIN17 Index Committee is responsible for constituent reviews, data validation, the handling of extraordinary events and methodology publication; material decisions are documented (sources, calculations, rationale and effective date). Anggota komite mengungkapkan kepemilikan/hubungan bisnis yang relevan; seleksi tidak boleh semata berdasar kepentingan internal. Committee members disclose relevant holdings/business relationships; selection must not be based solely on internal interests. Perubahan metodologi tidak diterapkan retroaktif kecuali koreksi data atau restatement yang diumumkan jelas — Versi 2.0 adalah restatement resmi karena indeks masih tahap awal pengembangan. Methodology changes are not applied retrospectively except for clearly announced data corrections or restatements — Version 2.0 is the official restatement because the index remains in an early stage of development.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 14 4. Cakupan dan Kriteria Kelayakan Saham 4. Universe & Stock Eligibility Criteria Cakupan awal mencakup saham biasa di BEI dengan data harga, laporan keuangan, saham tercatat, dan free float yang dapat diverifikasi. Kriteria kuantitatif tidak otomatis meloloskan — Komite dapat menolak saham murah bila terindikasi value trap, risiko tata kelola, earnings tak berulang, leverage berlebih, atau likuiditas tak memadai. The initial universe covers ordinary shares listed on the IDX with verifiable price data, financial statements, listed shares and free float. Quantitative criteria do not provide automatic admission — the Committee may reject a cheap stock when there are indications of a value trap, governance risk, non-recurring earnings, excessive leverage or inadequate liquidity. ● Status pencatatan aktif, bukan dalam proses delisting yang diumumkan ● Active listing status and not subject to an announced delisting process ● Likuiditas memadai (nilai transaksi, frekuensi, volume, bid- ask spread) ● Adequate liquidity (transaction value, frequency, volume and bid-ask spread) ● Free float teridentifikasi dari laporan registrasi/disclosure resmi ● Free float identified from official registration reports/disclosures ● Memenuhi kebutuhan diversifikasi sektor & karakter earnings pada keseluruhan 17 saham ● Meet the sector-diversification and earnings-profile needs of the overall 17-stock portfolio 5. Metodologi Seleksi & Valuasi (Kerangka Komite) 5. Selection & Valuation Methodology (Committee Framework) Untuk review dan rebalancing berkelanjutan, Komite Indeks menilai konstituen melalui skor gabungan multi-faktor berikut, di luar mesin gap PER pada Bagian I yang membentuk portofolio awal. For ongoing review and rebalancing, the Index Committee assesses constituents via the multi-factor score below, alongside the PER-gap engine in Part I that built the initial portfolio. 𝑆𝑘𝑜𝑟 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 = 35% 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑠𝑖 + 20% 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑠 + 15% 𝐾𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑠 𝐾𝑒𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑛 + 15% 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑢ℎ𝑎𝑛 + 10% 𝐿𝑖𝑘𝑢𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑠 + 5% 𝑇𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝐾𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑙𝑎/𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑘𝑜 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 = 35% 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 + 20% 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 15% 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑄𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 15% 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ + 10% 𝐿𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 5% 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒/𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 Tabel 13. Komponen dan Bobot Skor Multi-Faktor | Table 13. Components and Weights of the Multi-Factor Score Komponen Component Bobot Weight Fokus Penilaian Assessment Focus Valuasi Valuation 35% PER (30%), PBV (25%), EV/EBITDA (25%), dividend yield (20%) — dibandingkan histori, peer, dan siklus PER (30%), PBV (25%), EV/EBITDA (25%), dividend yield (20%) — compared with history, peers and the cycle Profitabilitas Profitability 20% ROE, ROA, margin, dan keberlanjutan laba ROE, ROA, margins and earnings sustainability Kualitas keuangan Financial quality 15% Arus kas, leverage, interest coverage, kualitas aset Cash flow, leverage, interest coverage and asset quality Pertumbuhan Growth 15% Pertumbuhan pendapatan, laba, dan nilai intrinsik Revenue, earnings and intrinsic-value growth Likuiditas Liquidity 10% Nilai transaksi, volume, frekuensi, free float, spread Transaction value, volume, frequency, free float and spread Tata kelola/Risiko Governance/Risk 5% Tata kelola, regulasi, komoditas, mata uang, risiko teknologi Governance, regulation, commodities, currency and technology risk Penyesuaian sektoral: bank dinilai via PER/PBV-ROE/dividend yield (tanpa EV/EBITDA); emiten siklikal memakai laba mid-cycle; emiten rugi memakai EV/Sales & liquidity runway; holding company mempertimbangkan discount/premium to NAV. Value- trap dicegah lewat pemeriksaan tren laba/arus kas, kualitas aset, dan margin of safety yang dapat diuji — bukan sekadar narasi murah. Sector adjustments: banks are assessed through PER/PBV- ROE/dividend yield (without EV/EBITDA); cyclical issuers use mid- cycle earnings; loss-making issuers use EV/Sales and liquidity runway; holding companies consider the discount/premium to NAV. Value traps are screened through testable earnings/cash- flow trends, asset quality and margin of safety — not merely a cheapness narrative.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 15 6. Klasifikasi Layer 6. Layer Classification Tabel 14. Klasifikasi dan Fungsi Layer | Table 14. Layer Classification and Function Layer Makna Meaning Fungsi Function 1 Keyakinan inti Core conviction Kualitas fundamental dan conviction tertinggi Highest fundamental quality and conviction 2 Peluang kuat Strong opportunity Valuasi/prospek menarik dengan risiko terkelola Attractive valuation/outlook with managed risk 3 Peluang selektif Selective opportunity Peluang lebih taktis/siklikal, monitoring lebih ketat A more tactical/cyclical opportunity with tighter monitoring 4 Pantauan / cadangan Watch / reserve Posisi pelengkap atau conviction relatif lebih rendah A complementary position or relatively lower conviction Layer adalah klasifikasi riset dan conviction. Layer tidak menentukan bobot secara langsung; bobot ditentukan oleh capped free float adjusted market capitalization. Layers are a research/conviction classification and do not set weights directly; weights come from the capped free-float adjusted market capitalization. 7. Pembobotan Capped FFMC 7. Capped FFMC Weighting Free float adalah saham scripless yang tersedia bagi investor publik menurut definisi BEI (saham pengendali/afiliasi, direksi- komisaris, dan treasury stock dikeluarkan). Free float comprises scripless shares available to public investors under the IDX definition (controlling/affiliated holdings, directors- commissioners and treasury shares are excluded). 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑖 = 𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖 𝐿𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖 𝐹𝐹𝑀𝐶𝑖 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑖 × 𝐿𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖 × 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑖 𝑈𝑛𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑖 = 𝐹𝐹𝑀𝐶𝑖 ∑17 𝑗=1 𝐹𝐹𝑀𝐶𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑖 ≤ 10% Berlaku pada tanggal rebalancing. 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑖 = 𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖 𝐿𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖 𝐹𝐹𝑀𝐶𝑖 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑖 × 𝐿𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖 × 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑖 𝑈𝑛𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑖 = 𝐹𝐹𝑀𝐶𝑖 ∑17 𝑗=1 𝐹𝐹𝑀𝐶𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑖 ≤ 10% Applies on the rebalancing date. Algoritma capping bersifat iteratif: saham di atas 10% ditetapkan pada 10%, sisa bobot dialokasikan proporsional ke saham yang belum dibatasi, diulang hingga tidak ada bobot melebihi cap, lalu divalidasi total = 100%. Enam saham menyentuh cap pada tanggal dasar: KLBF, INKP, BMRI, CPIN, BBNI, BBRI. Capping is iterative: names above 10% are set to 10%, the remainder is reallocated proportionally to uncapped names, repeated until no weight exceeds the cap, then validated to total 100%. Six names hit the cap at the base date: KLBF, INKP, BMRI, CPIN, BBNI, BBRI. 8. Formula Indeks & Divisor 8. Index Formula & Divisor 𝑊𝐼𝑁17𝑡 = ∑17 𝑖=1 (𝑃𝑖,𝑡 × 𝑄𝑖,𝑡) 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑟0 = ∑17 𝑖=1 (𝑃𝑖,0 × 𝑄𝑖,0) 1.000 𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑡 = 𝑊𝐼𝑁17𝑡 𝑊𝐼𝑁17𝑡−1 − 1 P = Harga; Q = Saham FF Disesuaikan. 𝑊𝐼𝑁17𝑡 = ∑17 𝑖=1 (𝑃𝑖,𝑡 × 𝑄𝑖,𝑡) 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑟0 = ∑17 𝑖=1 (𝑃𝑖,0 × 𝑄𝑖,0) 1,000 𝐷𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑡 = 𝑊𝐼𝑁17𝑡 𝑊𝐼𝑁17𝑡−1 − 1 P = Price; Q = Adjusted FF Shares. Divisor awal 130.505.996.336,23, menghasilkan WIN17₀ = 1.000 tepat pada 30 Juni 2026. Divisor disesuaikan saat terjadi perubahan nilai pasar mekanis (konstituen, adjusted shares, rights issue, merger, rebalancing) sehingga aksi korporasi tidak menimbulkan return semu — nilai indeks sebelum dan sesudah penyesuaian harus sama bila tidak ada perubahan harga ekonomi. The initial divisor of 130,505,996,336.23 produces WIN17₀ = 1,000 exactly on 30 June 2026. The divisor is adjusted for mechanical market-value changes (constituents, adjusted shares, rights issues, mergers and rebalancing) so corporate actions do not create artificial returns — absent an economic price change, the index value before and after adjustment must be equal.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 16 9. Rebalancing & Rekonstitusi 9. Rebalancing & Reconstitution Tabel 15. Jadwal Review dan Rebalancing WIN17 | Table 15. WIN17 Review and Rebalancing Schedule Tanggal Cut-off Cut-off Date Periode Penyusunan Review Review Preparation Period Tanggal Laporan Report Date 31 Maret 31 March 1–30 April 1–30 April Awal Mei Early May 30 Juni 30 June 1–31 Juli 1–31 July Awal Agustus Early August 30 September 30 September 1–31 Oktober 1–31 October Awal November Early November 31 Desember 31 December 1–31 Januari 1–31 January Awal Februari Early February Review berkala WIN17 menggunakan data yang tersedia hingga tanggal cut-off pada setiap akhir kuartal. Setelah tanggal cut-off, Komite Indeks melakukan proses penyusunan review selama satu bulan berikutnya, yang mencakup evaluasi kelayakan konstituen, valuasi, perubahan fundamental, free float, likuiditas, serta kebutuhan rebalancing atau rekonstitusi. Hasil evaluasi kemudian dituangkan dalam laporan review yang diterbitkan pada awal bulan berikutnya. Di antara periode review, bobot konstituen mengikuti pergerakan harga pasar dan dapat mengalami drift. Review khusus dapat dilakukan apabila terjadi perubahan material terhadap investability, aksi korporasi, suspensi berkepanjangan, atau kejadian lain yang secara signifikan memengaruhi kelayakan konstituen. Komite dapat menerapkan buffer untuk menghindari turnover yang berlebihan pada saham incumbent yang masih berada dekat dengan batas kelayakan. Regular WIN17 reviews use data available up to the cut-off date at the end of each quarter. Following the cut-off date, the Index Committee conducts a one-month review preparation process covering constituent eligibility, valuation, fundamental developments, free float, liquidity, and any required rebalancing or reconstitution. The assessment is subsequently documented in a review report issued at the beginning of the following month. Between review periods, constituent weights follow market-price movements and may experience natural weight drift. A special review may be conducted in the event of a material change in investability, corporate actions, prolonged suspension, or other events that significantly affect constituent eligibility. The Committee may apply a buffer to limit excessive turnover for incumbent stocks that remain close to the eligibility threshold. 10. Corporate Action & Kejadian Khusus 10. Corporate Actions & Special Events Tabel 16. Perlakuan Aksi Korporasi dan Kejadian Khusus | Table 16. Treatment of Corporate Actions and Special Events Kejadian Event Perlakuan Indeks Index Treatment Stock split / bonus / dividen saham Stock split / bonus / stock dividend Harga dan jumlah saham disesuaikan resiprokal; nilai pasar & indeks tidak berubah Price and share count are adjusted reciprocally; market value and index are unchanged Rights issue / private placement Gunakan jumlah saham baru & theoretical ex-rights adjustment; sesuaikan divisor & free float Use the new share count and theoretical ex-rights adjustment; adjust the divisor and free float Dividen tunai Cash dividend Tidak ditambahkan kembali karena WIN17 adalah price index Not added back because WIN17 is a price index Buyback / treasury shares Perbarui free float pada review reguler atau review khusus jika material Update free float at the regular review or a special review if material Merger / spin-off / delisting / suspensi berkepanjangan Merger / spin-off / delisting / prolonged suspension Evaluasi ulang konstituen dan divisor; review luar biasa oleh Komite bila mengubah identitas ekonomi emiten atau kelayakan (kepailitan, going concern, perubahan pengendalian signifikan) Reassess the constituent and divisor; extraordinary Committee review if the issuer’s economic identity or eligibility changes (bankruptcy, going concern or a significant change of control) 11. Evaluasi Kinerja & Benchmark 11. Performance Evaluation & Benchmark WIN17 dibandingkan IHSG dan LQ45 atas dasar return pada periode yang sama; level benchmark tetap memakai nilai indeks aktual. WIN17 is compared with the IHSG and LQ45 on a return basis over the same period; benchmark levels continue to use actual index values. Tabel 17. Perbandingan Kinerja WIN17, IHSG, dan LQ45 | Table 17. Performance Comparison of WIN17, IHSG and LQ45 Indeks Index 30 Jun 2026 10 Agu 2026 Perubahan Change Return WIN17 1.000,00 1.114,70 +114,70 +9,35% IHSG 5.643,19 6.365,37 +722,18 +7,29% LQ45 553,11 634,13 +81,02 +7,50%
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 17 Gambar 2. Return kumulatif WIN17, IHSG, dan LQ45 — sejak 30 Jun 2026. Figure 2. Cumulative return of WIN17, IHSG and LQ45, since 30 Jun 2026. Gambar 3. Return harian WIN17, IHSG, dan LQ45 (1 Jul – 10 Agu 2026). Figure 3. Daily returns of WIN17, IHSG and LQ45, 1 Jul – 10 Aug 2026. Seri pada Gambar 2 dan 3 diambil langsung dari sheet INDEX (baris 7–9 return harian; baris 12–14 return kumulatif sebagai akumulasi return harian) — metode yang sama dengan Laporan Update Pasar WIN17, diperpanjang hingga 10 Agu 2026. Tabel level indeks pada Bagian 11 dan Lampiran B memakai level indeks aktual, dengan return kumulatif mengikuti metode akumulasi ini agar konsisten dengan grafik. · Series in Figures 2 and 3 come from the INDEX sheet (rows 7–9 daily; rows 12–14 cumulative as accumulated daily returns) — the same method used in the WIN17 Market Update Report, extended through 10 Aug 2026. The index-level tables in Part 11 and Appendix B use actual index levels, with cumulative return following this accumulation method to stay consistent with the charts. Interpretasi: sepanjang 30 Jun – 10 Agu 2026 WIN17 unggul atas kedua benchmark — return kumulatif +9,35% berbanding IHSG +7,29% dan LQ45 +7,50%, atau selisih 2,07 poin persentase terhadap IHSG dan 1,85 poin persentase terhadap LQ45. WIN17 bergerak dengan amplitudo harian lebih lebar dibanding kedua benchmark — sesi terlemah −2,73% (08 Jul) dan terkuat +2,72% (30 Jul) — konsisten dengan konsentrasi bobot pada enam saham ter-cap 10%; ayunan yang lebih lebar inilah yang berkontribusi pada keunggulan return kumulatif WIN17 pada periode ini. Interpretation: over 30 Jun – 10 Aug 2026 WIN17 led both benchmarks — cumulative return +9.35% against IHSG +7.29% and LQ45 +7.50%, a lead of 2.07 points over the IHSG and 1.85 points over the LQ45. WIN17 swings more widely day to day than either benchmark — the weakest session −2.73% (8 Jul) and the strongest +2.72% (30 Jul) — consistent with concentration in the six 10%-capped constituents; that wider swing is a contributor to WIN17's cumulative-return lead over the period. 12. Batasan & Disclaimer Indeks 12. Index Limitations & Disclaimer ● WIN17 adalah indeks riset, bukan rekomendasi membeli, menjual, atau menahan efek. ● WIN17 is a research index, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities. ● Kinerja historis tidak menjamin hasil masa depan. ● Historical performance does not guarantee future results. ● Free float dapat berubah setelah tanggal cut-off dan berbeda interpretasi antar disclosure. ● Free float may change after the cut-off date and may be interpreted differently across disclosures. ● Price index tidak memperhitungkan dividen tunai, pajak, biaya transaksi, atau tracking error; benchmark memiliki metodologi & komposisi berbeda sehingga perbandingan bersifat indikatif. ● The price index does not account for cash dividends, taxes, transaction costs or tracking error; the benchmarks have different methodologies and compositions, so the comparison is indicative.
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 18 Lampiran A — Konstituen & Bobot Dasar Appendix A — Constituents & Base Weights Perhitungan memakai harga penutupan 30 Juni 2026, saham tercatat dan free float pada cut-off yang sama, cap maksimum 10%. Listed & FF dalam miliar lembar; FFMC dalam triliun rupiah. Appendix A — Constituents & Base Weights, using 30 June 2026 closing prices, matching-date listed/free-float shares, and the 10% cap. Tabel 18. Konstituen dan Bobot Dasar WIN17 | Table 18. WIN17 Constituents and Base Weights Ticker L Harga Price Listed(bn) Listed (bn) FF(bn) FF (bn) FF% FFMC(RpT) FFMC (Rp tn) Uncapped % Cap.factor Cap factor Final% KLBF 1 765 46,813 17,856 38,14 13,660 2,981 0,9554 10,000 JPFA 1 1.945 11,727 4,759 40,58 9,256 2,020 1,0000 7,092 INKP 1 7.075 5,471 2,200 40,22 15,567 3,397 0,8384 10,000 BMRI 1 3.850 92,400 35,952 38,91 138,417 30,203 0,0943 10,000 SRTG 1 1.590 13,565 1,287 9,48 2,046 0,446 1,0000 1,567 TKIM 2 5.400 3,113 0,911 29,27 4,921 1,074 1,0000 3,771 TOWR 2 364 59,098 16,053 27,16 5,843 1,275 1,0000 4,477 AADI 2 7.775 7,787 1,450 18,62 11,271 2,459 1,0000 8,636 ERAA 2 350 15,950 6,715 42,10 2,350 0,513 1,0000 1,801 AUTO 2 2.350 4,820 0,961 19,95 2,259 0,493 1,0000 1,731 SIMP 3 525 15,501 1,958 12,63 1,028 0,224 1,0000 0,787 BBTN 3 1.100 13,894 4,876 35,09 5,363 1,170 1,0000 4,109 CTRA 3 555 18,536 7,930 42,78 4,401 0,960 1,0000 3,372 CPIN 3 3.400 16,398 5,590 34,09 19,005 4,147 0,6867 10,000 BBNI 3 3.160 36,924 14,265 38,63 45,077 9,836 0,2895 10,000 BBRI 4 2.730 150,043 63,867 42,57 174,357 38,045 0,0749 10,000 LSIP 4 1.270 6,820 2,727 39,99 3,464 0,756 1,0000 2,654 Total adjusted market value tanggal dasar: Rp130,506 triliun. Divisor awal: 130.505.996.336,23. Total bobot akhir: 100,000%. Total adjusted market value on the base date: Rp130.506 trillion. Initial divisor: 130,505,996,336.23. Total final weight: 100.000%. Tabel 19. Bobot Dasar WIN17 per Layer | Table 19. WIN17 Base Weights by Layer Layer Bobot Dasar Base Weight Layer 1 38,660% Layer 2 20,417% Layer 3 28,269% Layer 4 12,654% Total 100,000%
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 19 Lampiran B — Seri Harian WIN17 (Restated) Appendix B — WIN17 Daily Series (Restated) Seri berikut menggantikan seri equal-weight terdahulu dan berlaku resmi sejak tanggal dasar. Titik akhir minggu ditampilkan sebagai ringkasan, dengan rincian harian untuk periode laporan 3–10 Agu 2026; level tertinggi 1.121,22 (7 Agu), terendah 989,72 (2 Jul), kenaikan harian terbesar +2,72% (30 Jul), penurunan harian terbesar −2,73% (8 Jul). This series replaces the former equal-weight series and is official from the base date. Weekly closes are shown as a summary, with daily detail for the 3–10 Aug 2026 reporting period; period high 1,121.22 (7 Aug), low 989.72 (2 Jul), largest daily gain +2.72% (30 Jul), largest daily loss −2.73% (8 Jul). Tabel 20. Seri Harian WIN17 (Restated) | Table 20. WIN17 Daily Series (Restated) Tanggal Date WIN17 Return Kumulatif Cumulative Return 30 Jun 2026 (dasar) 30 Jun 2026 (base) 1.000,00 +0,00% 03 Jul 2026 1.007,76 +1,82% 10 Jul 2026 1.016,68 +0,89% 17 Jul 2026 1.074,60 +5,60% 24 Jul 2026 1.064,74 +4,71% 31 Jul 2026 1.097,02 +7,74% 03 Agu 2026 1.096,71 +7,71% 04 Agu 2026 1.111,36 +9,04% 05 Agu 2026 1.115,74 +9,44% 06 Agu 2026 1.110,85 +9,00% 07 Agu 2026 (puncak) 1.121,22 +9,93% 10 Agu 2026 (terkini) 10 Aug 2026 (latest) 1.114,70 +9,35%
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 20 Lampiran C — Kontribusi Konstituen Appendix C — Constituent Contribution Kontribusi poin indeks dari setiap konstituen selama 30 Juni – 10 Agustus 2026. Jumlah kontribusi = +114,70 poin, konsisten dengan perubahan WIN17 dari 1.000,00 menjadi 1.114,70. Index-point contribution by constituent, 30 Jun – 10 Aug 2026. Total contribution = +114.70 points, consistent with WIN17 moving from 1,000.00 to 1,114.70. Tabel 21. Kontribusi Konstituen WIN17 | Table 21. WIN17 Constituent Contribution Ticker Bobot Awal Initial Weight Harga Awal Initial Price Harga Akhir Final Price Return Kontribusi(pt) Contribution (pt) Bobot Akhir Final Weight KLBF 10,000% 765 785 +2,61% +2,61 9,206% JPFA 7,092% 1.945 2.210 +13,62% +9,66 7,229% INKP 10,000% 7.075 8.375 +18,37% +18,37 10,619% BMRI 10,000% 3.850 4.180 +8,57% +8,57 9,740% SRTG 1,568% 1.590 1.830 +15,09% +2,37 1,619% TKIM 3,769% 5.400 7.150 +32,41% +12,22 4,477% TOWR 4,477% 364 394 +8,24% +3,69 4,348% AADI 8,638% 7.775 9.175 +18,01% +15,55 9,145% ERAA 1,801% 350 458 +30,86% +5,56 2,114% AUTO 1,730% 2.350 2.800 +19,15% +3,31 1,850% SIMP 0,788% 525 595 +13,33% +1,05 0,801% BBTN 4,110% 1.100 1.235 +12,27% +5,04 4,139% CTRA 3,372% 555 615 +10,81% +3,65 3,352% CPIN 10,000% 3.400 3.080 −9,41% −9,41 8,127% BBNI 10,000% 3.160 3.650 +15,51% +15,51 10,362% BBRI 10,000% 2.730 3.090 +13,19% +13,19 10,154% LSIP 2,654% 1.270 1.450 +14,17% +3,76 2,718%
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 21 Lampiran D — Input Model Estimated PER Appendix D — Estimated PER Model Inputs Enam input pembentuk Estimated PER per saham (AUG–JAN 2026 / BIG 20 Choice). The six per-stock inputs behind the Estimated PER (AUG–JAN 2026 / BIG 20 Choice). Tabel 22. Input Model Estimated PER per Konstituen | Table 22. Estimated PER Model Inputs by Constituent Ticker PER Peer Peer PER Anchor EPS Gr. Kualitas Quality Pertumbuha n Growth Makro Macro Risiko Risk L SRTG 7,33 9,50 9,0% 1,00 1,08 0,92 0,90 1 KLBF 25,35 17,00 10,0% 1,08 1,08 0,92 1,00 1 TKIM 17,65 10,00 3,5% 0,92 0,92 0,92 1,00 2 JPFA 5,89 12,00 12,0% 1,30 1,15 0,92 1,00 1 TOWR 17,53 10,00 6,0% 1,00 1,00 0,92 1,00 2 INKP 17,65 10,00 3,5% 0,92 0,92 0,92 1,00 1 BMRI 7,33 9,50 10,0% 1,08 1,08 0,92 1,00 1 AADI 11,28 8,00 5,0% 1,08 1,00 0,92 1,00 2 ERAA 10,35 12,00 9,0% 1,00 1,08 0,92 0,95 2 AUTO 9,46 12,00 7,0% 1,00 1,00 0,92 1,00 2 SIMP 5,89 12,00 8,0% 0,92 1,00 0,92 1,00 3 BBTN 7,33 9,50 9,0% 1,00 1,08 0,92 1,00 3 CTRA 9,89 8,00 2,5% 0,92 0,92 0,92 1,00 3 CPIN 5,89 12,00 11,0% 1,22 1,08 0,92 1,00 3 BBNI 7,33 9,50 9,0% 1,00 1,08 0,92 1,00 3 BBRI 7,33 9,50 10,0% 1,08 1,08 0,92 1,00 4 LSIP 5,89 12,00 8,0% 0,92 1,00 0,92 1,00 4 Catatan ERAA: Estimated PER 8,60 memuat dua multiplier tambahan di luar skema tabel ini — Cycle 1,00 dan Liquidity 0,88 — sesuai catatan audit pada sheet AUG–JAN 2026: 10,35 × 1,00 × 1,00 × 1,08 × 0,88 × 0,92 × 0,95 = 8,60 ERAA note: the Estimated PER of 8.60 includes two additional multipliers outside this table — Cycle 1.00 and Liquidity 0.88 — in accordance with the audit note on the AUG–JAN 2026 sheet: 10.35 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.08 × 0.88 × 0.92 × 0.95 = 8.60
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 22 Lampiran E — Sumber Data & Asumsi Appendix E — Data Sources & Assumptions Klasifikasi data dan asumsi dari kedua bagian dokumen — data historis dan estimasi forward dijaga terpisah; hierarki sumber berlaku untuk riset maupun perhitungan indeks. Data and assumption classification for both parts of this dossier — historical data and forward estimates are kept distinct; the source hierarchy applies to both the research and the index calculations. Tabel 23. Sumber Data dan Asumsi | Table 23. Data Sources and Assumptions Aspek Aspect Keterangan Description Cut-off data Data cut-off Harga & Current PER per 30 Juni 2026; monitoring harga hingga 10 Agustus 2026 Price & Current PER as of 30 June 2026; price monitoring through 10 August 2026 Hierarki sumber Source hierarchy (1) BEI & keterbukaan resmi emiten (2) Laporan Bulanan Registrasi Pemegang Efek/BAE (3) Laporan keuangan & corporate action disclosure (4) Penyedia data pasar untuk histori harga (5) Catatan perhitungan internal (1) IDX & official issuer disclosures (2) Monthly Securities Holder Registration Reports/share registrars (3) Financial statements & corporate-action disclosures (4) Market-data providers for price history (5) Internal calculation notes Sumber pasar per saham Per-stock market sources sectors.app, Reuters, Google Finance, Wisesheets, dan sejenisnya sectors.app, Reuters, Google Finance, Wisesheets and similar sources Data bobot indeks Index-weight data Free float, listed shares, FFMC, capping factor, divisor — dari LBRE BEI dan Investing.com (harga historis, diakses 27 Jul 2026); di luar cakupan Daily Monitoring Free float, listed shares, FFMC, capping factor and divisor — from IDX LBRE and Investing.com (historical prices, accessed 27 Jul 2026); outside the scope of Daily Monitoring Klasifikasi data Data classification Historis: ROE, Current PER. Estimasi forward: Estimated PER, Bear/Bull, gap, Estimated Price, FFMC/bobot indeks — seluruhnya keluaran model, bukan fakta Historical: ROE, Current PER. Forward estimates: Estimated PER, Bear/Bull, gap, Estimated Price and FFMC/index weights — all model outputs, not facts Koreksi data Data corrections Kesalahan material dikoreksi via restatement, menyebutkan periode terdampak, penyebab, nilai sebelum/sesudah, dan tanggal publikasi Material errors are corrected through a restatement stating the affected period, cause, before/after values and publication date
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 23 Lampiran Riset per Emiten
KLBFKalbe Farma TbkHealth Care · Farmasi, nutrisi & distribusi kesehatan · Tercatat di BEI sejak 1991 Pharmaceuticals, nutrition & healthcare distribution · Listed on IDX since 1991PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 1 Core conviction — prioritas penempatan tertinggi highest deployment priorityHARGA TERKINI (10 AGU) current priceRp 785 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 765 base price 30 JunRp 2.001 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+155% gap terbesar di seluruh WIN17 widest gap in the WIN17 bookDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicPasar menghargai Kalbe seperti perusahaan yang berhenti tumbuh, padahal bisnisnya tidak demikian. Saham diperdagangkan sekitar 9 kali laba level yang biasanya melekat pada emiten komoditas , sementara Kalbe adalah produsen farmasi dan nutrisi dengan permintaan yang relatif kebal siklus ekonomi, imbal hasil modal 16%, neraca tanpa tekanan utang, dan kas yang cukup membiayai belanja modal Rp1 triliun sekaligus membeli kembali sahamnya sendiri. Selisih antara cara pasar menilai dan kualitas bisnisnya inilah tesis investasinya. The market prices Kalbe as a business that has stopped growing — around nine times earnings, a multiple normally reserved for commodity names. Yet demand here is largely insulated from the cycle, return on equity is 16%, the balance sheet is unstressed, and cash flow funds Rp1tn of capex while buying back stock. That gap is the thesis. TESIS INVESTASI Investment Thesis DAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attractions & RisksMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Permintaan obat dan nutrisi tidak ikut turun saat ekonomi melambat — penyeimbang nama siklikal di portofolio. Imbal hasil modal 16% tanpa mengandalkan utang: laba berulang, bukan hasil satu kali. Buyback hingga Rp500 miliar — dari dalam perusahaan pun harga dinilai murah. Defensive demand, a 16% return on equity carried without leverage, and management buying back its own stock.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Nilai wajar Rp2.001 mengandaikan pasar mau menghargai Kalbe jauh di atas level kini — selama belum terjadi, upside tetap di atas kertas. Daya beli melemah dan target 2026 ditahan; terjadi downtrading ke produk yang lebih murah. Harga belum bergerak: turun 5,9% saat indeks WIN17 naik 6,5%. The re-rating is an assumption, not a fact; consumer spending is soft and the stock has lagged the index. BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU15 Jul 202607 Jul 202629 Jun 20262026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBVPengalihan kembali 61,73 juta saham buyback; sisa treasury 1,56 miliar unit— StockWatch.idDampak ke tesis: perusahaan menilai sahamnya murah dan punya kas untuk bertindak; treasury besar memberi ruang penyerapan lanjutan. Impact: the company sees its own stock as cheap and has cash to act on it.Kalbe menahan target kinerja 2026; capex ~Rp1 triliun, fokus ke produk siap minum— KontanDampak ke tesis: rerating tertunda, namun capex tetap Rp1 triliun dan bauran produk menyesuaikan permintaan — bukan kerusakan bisnis. Impact: delays the re-rating, but capex is intact — not a sign of business damage.Transaksi afiliasi: penjualan aset tanah Rp17,23 miliar oleh perseroan — PintarSahamDampak ke tesis: tidak material terhadap laba, namun transaksi pihak berelasi layak diikuti — tata kelola adalah komponen skor WIN17. Impact: immaterial to earnings, but related-party dealings warrant attention.Harga/laba kini trailing P/EHarga/laba wajar fair P/EImbal hasil modal return on equityAsumsi pertumbuhan EPS growthBobot indeks index weightSumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · KLBF9,800 1,367 920 4,839 21,022 33,123 7,343 24,344 25,780 11.14% 15.16% 9.70x 1.47x9,678 1,508 1,053 4,668 20,282 31,957 6,195 24,326 25,761 11.54% 15.16% 12.54x 1.90x35,324 5,452 3,745 4,482 19,473 30,682 5,965 23,341 24,718 12.21% 16.04% 15.06x 2.42x32,628 4,953 3,247 4,298 18,672 29,420 5,270 22,804 24,149 11.04% 14.24% 19.63x 2.80x30,449 4,796 2,779 3,959 17,202 27,104 4,439 21,402 22,665 10.25% 12.98% 27.89x 3.62x28,934 4,963 3,450 3,983 17,304 27,264 5,676 20,386 21,589 12.65% 16.92% 28.40x 4.81x 10,00%10,0%16,0%25,3x9,4x RINGKASAN KEUANGAN Financial SummaryData diambil dari Stockbit secara real-time pada saat periode pengambilan data.
JPFAJapfa Comfeed Indonesia TbkConsumer Staples · Pakan ternak, peternakan unggas terintegrasi & pengolahan pangan · Tercatat di BEI sejak 1989 Consumer Staples · Animal feed, integrated poultry farming & food processing · Listed on IDX since 1989PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 1 Core conviction — prioritas penempatan tertinggi highest deployment priorityRp 2.210 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 1.945 base price 30 JunRp 4.680 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+112% gap terbesar kedua di seluruh WIN17 second-widest gap in the WIN17 bookDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicJapfa diperdagangkan pada level PER terendah di seluruh WIN17 — sekitar 4,5 kali laba — padahal imbal hasil modalnya 33% adalah yang tertinggi di portofolio. Pasar tampak menghukum siklus jangka pendek: harga ayam broiler dan DOC melemah pada kuartal kedua 2026 akibat kelebihan pasokan dan kenaikan biaya bahan baku pakan impor. Namun laba bersih kuartal pertama justru melonjak hampir dua kali lipat secara tahunan, dan program pemerintah Makan Bergizi Gratis membangun permintaan struktural yang belum sepenuhnya tercermin pada harga saham. Selisih antara PER siklus-rendah dan ROE struktural-tinggi inilah yang membentuk tesis investasi. Japfa trades at the cheapest multiple in the WIN17 book — about 4.5x earnings — despite carrying the portfolio's highest return on equity at 33%. The market appears to be pricing a short cycle: broiler and DOC prices softened in Q2 2026 on oversupply and costlier imported feed inputs. Yet Q1 net profit nearly doubled year-on-year, and the government's free-meal programme is building structural demand the share price has yet to reflect. TESIS INVESTASI Investment Thesis DAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attractions & RisksMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Imbal hasil modal 33% — tertinggi di seluruh WIN17 — dengan margin yang diperkirakan membaik seiring biaya pakan mereda di semester kedua. Program Makan Bergizi Gratis (anggaran Rp335 triliun) memberi permintaan struktural jangka panjang bagi unggas dan pakan ternak. Laba bersih kuartal I-2026 melonjak ~96% yoy menjadi Rp123,27 miliar, menunjukkan momentum sebelum tekanan kuartal II. The portfolio's highest ROE, structural demand from the government's free-meal programme, and a Q1 profit surge ahead of the Q2 cost squeeze.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Harga ayam broiler dan DOC anjlok pada kuartal II-2026, menekan margin jangka pendek. Bahan baku pakan (bungkil kedelai) sebagian diimpor — rentan terhadap pelemahan rupiah dan perubahan kebijakan impor satu pintu. Insiden kebakaran di fasilitas Cengkareng (13 Jul 2026) menyoroti risiko operasional pabrik pakan. A near-term chicken-price downturn, imported feed-cost exposure to the rupiah, and a reminder of plant operating risk from a July fire. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU09 Jul 202608 Jul 202613 Jun 2026Prospek emiten unggas dinilai masih menarik di semester II 2026, laba Q1 JPFA melonjakDampak ke tesis: Permintaan MBG dan biaya pakan yang mereda menopang kinerja; laba bersih kuartal I naik hampir dua kali lipat yoy. Impact: MBG demand and easing feed costs support performance; Q1 net profit nearly doubled yoy.Japfa catatkan obligasi Rp500 miliar di BEI, peringkat A+, untuk refinancingDampak ke tesis: Pendanaan rutin untuk melunasi sebagian utang bank; struktur bunga tetap dan tenor jelas, tidak mengubah tesis. Impact: Routine refinancing of bank debt at fixed rates and defined tenors — does not change the thesis.Kebakaran melanda fasilitas Japfa Comfeed di Cengkareng, Jakarta BaratDampak ke tesis: Api berhasil dilokalisir dalam waktu singkat; belum ada indikasi dampak material ke produksi, namun layak dipantau lanjutan. Impact: Fire was contained quickly; no confirmed material production impact yet, but worth continued monitoring.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · JPFA17,714 2,928 1,943 1,849 16,206 39,307 17,281 20,543 22,026 13.92% 26.63% 5.04x 1.34x60,715 7,450 4,281 1,883 16,502 40,025 20,002 18,675 20,024 10.70% 22.92% 7.18x 1.65x55,800 6,230 3,212 1,632 14,306 34,699 18,095 15,487 16,605 9.26% 20.74% 7.09x 1.47x51,176 3,843 946 1,881 16,492 40,000 25,704 13,333 14,296 2.37% 7.10% 14.63x 1.04x48,972 3,803 1,491 1,254 10,994 26,667 14,413 11,429 12,254 5.59% 13.05% 10.19x 1.33x 7,09%12,0%33,0%10,01x4,49x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis RINGKASAN KEUANGAN Financia
INKPIndah Kiat Pulp & Paper TbkMaterials ·Produsen pulp, kertas budaya & kemasan terintegrasi, bagian grup Sinar Mas · Tercatat di BEI sejak 1990 Materials · Integrated pulp, cultural paper & packaging producer, part of Sinar Mas Group · Listed on IDX since 1990PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 1 Core conviction — prioritas penempatan tertinggi highest deployment priorityRp 8.375 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 7.075 base price 30 JunRp 13.686 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+63% deep value di antara nama materials WIN17 deep value among the WIN17 materials namesDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicIndah Kiat diperdagangkan sekitar 5 kali laba — level yang biasa melekat pada produsen komoditas di titik bawah siklus — meski perusahaan tengah bertransformasi dari pemain pulp siklikal menjadi produsen kemasan bermargin lebih tinggi. Proyek pabrik Karawang senilai ~USD3 miliar diproyeksikan menambah kapasitas kemasan hingga 3,9 juta ton. Basis pendapatan yang berorientasi ekspor turut memberi lindung nilai alami terhadap pelemahan rupiah. Ketimpangan antara valuasi ala-komoditas dan arah bisnis yang bergeser ke kemasan inilah yang membentuk tesis investasi. Indah Kiat trades around 5x earnings — a multiple more typical of a commodity producer at the bottom of the cycle — even as the company shifts from cyclical pulp toward higher-margin packaging. The roughly USD3bn Karawang plant is set to add packaging capacity and structurally change the earnings mix, while a largely export-driven revenue base offers a natural hedge against rupiah weakness. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisDAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attractions & RisksMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Transformasi bisnis menuju kemasan bermargin lebih tinggi lewat pabrik Karawang (~USD3 miliar, kapasitas hingga 3,9 juta ton). Basis pendapatan ekspor yang besar memberi lindung nilai alami terhadap pelemahan rupiah. Dividen tunai Rp75/saham (Rp410,32 miliar) untuk tahun buku 2025 menunjukkan kas operasional yang sehat. A structural shift toward higher-margin packaging, a natural rupiah hedge from exports, and a healthy cash dividend from FY2025 earnings.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Obligasi & sukuk senilai Rp2,31 triliun jatuh tempo Juli 2026; direncanakan dilunasi dari kas internal. Harga pulp dan kertas tetap siklikal, sensitif terhadap permintaan global dan harga komoditas. ROE 8,8% relatif rendah dibanding rata-rata WIN17 lain — margin of safety valuasi menjadi kunci. A large July bond maturity (though cash-funded), continued pulp-price cyclicality, and a below-average ROE that puts weight on the valuation margin of safety. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU08 Jul 202625 Jun 202615 Jun 2026Pabrik Karawang jadi titik balik INKP, bisnis kemasan siap jadi mesin pertumbuhanDampak ke tesis: Riset Mirae Asset menilai proyek USD3 miliar ini mengubah profil bisnis INKP dari pulp siklikal menjadi kemasan bermargin lebih tinggi. Impact: Mirae Asset research views the USD3bn project as shifting INKP from cyclical pulp to higher-margin packaging.INKP bagikan dividen tunai Rp410,32 miliar (Rp75/saham) untuk tahun buku 2025Dampak ke tesis: Realisasi rutin hasil RUPST; menunjukkan kas operasional sehat namun tidak mengubah arah tesis transformasi bisnis. Impact: Routine AGM-approved payout signalling healthy operating cash, but not a change to the transformation thesis.Obligasi & sukuk INKP senilai Rp2,31 triliun jatuh tempo Juli 2026Dampak ke tesis: Pefindo mencatat rencana pelunasan dari kas internal; posisi kas US$592,9 juta per Maret 2026 dinilai memadai. Impact: Pefindo notes a plan to repay from internal cash; the US$592.9m cash position as of March 2026 is deemed adequate.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · INKP13,761 4,331 2,632 11,833 89,844 215,738 96,635 119,095 119,102 3.62% 6.55% 7.12x 0.47x52,253 19,440 7,461 11,310 85,878 206,214 92,013 114,194 114,201 3.62% 6.53% 6.34x 0.41x50,687 13,955 6,742 10,408 79,025 189,758 86,076 103,675 103,682 3.55% 6.50% 5.70x 0.37x52,979 17,332 6,253 8,534 64,802 155,604 63,050 92,549 92,555 4.02% 6.76% 7.28x 0.49x59,489 20,737 12,756 8,240 62,563 150,229 62,891 87,333 87,339 8.49% 14.61% 3.74x 0.55x 10,00%3,5%8,8%9,44x5,16x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis RINGKASAN KEUANGAN Financial SummaryData diambil dari Stockbit secara real-time pada saat periode pengambilan data.HARGA TERKI
BMRIBank Mandiri TbkFinancials · Bank BUMN terbesar di Indonesia dari sisi aset — korporasi, ritel & syariah · Tercatat di BEI sejak 2003 Financials · Indonesia's largest state-owned bank by assets — corporate, retail & sharia · Listed on IDX since 2003PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 1 Core conviction — prioritas penempatan tertinggi highest deployment priorityRp 4.180 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 3.850 base price 30 JunRp 5.268 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+26% anchor finansial di Layer 1 the Layer 1 financial anchorDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicBank Mandiri diperdagangkan sekitar 5,5 kali laba dengan imbal hasil modal 19,6% — salah satu kombinasi murah-berkualitas terbaik di WIN17. Laba konsolidasian semester I-2026 naik 24,3% yoy menjadi Rp30,41 triliun, ditopang pendapatan berbasis komisi dan pencadangan yang lebih rendah, sementara kualitas aset membaik (NPL turun ke 0,98%). Namun pasar merespons negatif: pendapatan bunga bersih turun 7,84% yoy dan kredit menyusut tipis, membuat saham terkoreksi tajam usai rilis kinerja. Selisih antara laba yang tumbuh dan harga yang justru terkoreksi inilah yang memperlebar margin of safety. Bank Mandiri trades around 5.5x earnings with a 19.6% return on equity — one of the best cheap-quality combinations in WIN17. H1 2026 consolidated profit rose 24.3% yoy to Rp30.41tn on stronger fee income and lower provisioning, while asset quality improved (NPL down to 0.98%). Yet the market reacted negatively as net interest income fell 7.84% yoy and lending contracted slightly, sending the stock sharply lower right after results. That gap between growing profit and a falling price widens the margin of safety. TESIS INVESTASI Investment Thesis DAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attractions & RisksMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Laba konsolidasian H1-2026 naik 24,3% yoy menjadi Rp30,41 triliun, melampaui ekspektasi analis dan konsensus pasar. Kualitas aset membaik — rasio kredit bermasalah (NPL) turun ke 0,98% dari 1,08% tahun sebelumnya. RHB Sekuritas mempertahankan rekomendasi buy dengan target Rp5.420, potensi kenaikan lebih dari 20% dari harga pasca-koreksi. Profit growth well ahead of consensus, improving asset quality, and a reiterated buy rating with 20%+ upside after the post-results selloff.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Pendapatan bunga bersih konsolidasian turun 7,84% yoy dan total kredit menyusut tipis 1,3% yoy. Saham terkoreksi 5,71% pada 24 Jul 2026 — penurunan terdalam di antara bank besar — sehari usai rilis kinerja. Panduan margin bunga bersih (NIM) 2026 direvisi turun oleh sejumlah analis pasca laporan kuartal II. Shrinking net interest income and lending, the sharpest post-results selloff among big banks, and analysts trimming 2026 NIM guidance. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU27 Jul 202613 Jun 202627 Jul 2026Laba BMRI semester I-2026 Rp30,41 triliun, naik 24% yoy, lampaui ekspektasi analisDampak ke tesis: Pertumbuhan laba ditopang fee income dan pencadangan lebih rendah; realisasi H1 setara 53% estimasi tahun penuh analis. Impact: Profit growth driven by fee income and lower provisioning; H1 realisation equals 53% of analysts' full-year estimate.Bank Mandiri siap lunasi obligasi hijau Rp1,95 triliun jatuh tempo 4 Juli 2026Dampak ke tesis: Pelunasan rutin sesuai jadwal; dana telah disiapkan, tidak mengubah tesis maupun profil risiko neraca. Impact: Routine, on-schedule repayment with funds already set aside — no change to the thesis or balance-sheet risk profile.Saham BMRI anjlok 5,71% usai rilis kinerja, penurunan terdalam di antara bank besarDampak ke tesis: Pendapatan bunga bersih turun 7,84% yoy dan kredit menyusut; panduan NIM 2026 direvisi turun oleh sejumlah analis. Impact: Net interest income fell 7.84% yoy and lending contracted; some analysts trimmed 2026 NIM guidance.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · BMRI35,725 20,335 15,414 22,909 n.a. 2,547,119 2,254,067 284,621 293,052 2.60% 23.23% 5.53x 1.28x37,662 21,266 16,213 21,963 n.a. 2,441,905 2,127,625 305,238 314,280 2.58% 20.65% 6.99x 1.44x164,963 82,417 61,346 25,298 n.a. 2,812,727 2,510,292 293,734 302,435 2.18% 20.88% 7.76x 1.62x153,757 80,728 61,165 21,720 n.a. 2,414,912 2,122,691 283,814 292,221 2.53% 21.55% 8.70x 1.87x146,266 81,383 60,052 19,443 n.a. 2,161,757 1,893,064 260,962 268,693 2.78% 23.01% 9.40x 2.16x126,762 60,682 44,952 17,849 n.a. 1,984,528 1,748,075 229,651 236,453 2.27% 19.57% 10.31x 2.02x 10,00%10,0%19,6%9,55x5,52x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Cur
SRTGSaratoga Investama Sedaya TbkFinancials ·Perusahaan investasi (holding) — SDA, infrastruktur & consumer ·Tercatat di BEI sejak 2013 Financials · Investment holding company — natural resources, infrastructure & consumer · Listed on IDX since 2013PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 1 Core conviction — prioritas penempatan tertinggi highest deployment priorityRp 1.830 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 1.590 base price 30 JunRp 8.657 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+373% gap terbesar di seluruh WIN17 the widest gap in the WIN17 bookDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicSaratoga mencatatkan gap valuasi terlebar di WIN17, namun perlu dibaca hati-hati: Current PER 1,17x sangat rendah karena laba memasukkan keuntungan mark- to-market portofolio investasi, bukan semata laba operasional inti — karakteristik umum holding company. Kuartal I-2026 berbalik untung Rp5,32 triliun dari rugi Rp6,07 triliun setahun sebelumnya, didorong pemulihan nilai wajar saham portofolio seperti MDKA dan AADI. Ukuran valuasi yang lebih relevan adalah diskon terhadap NAV, bukan PER absolut — karena itu confidence SRTG ditetapkan Medium-Low, berbeda dari 16 saham WIN17 lainnya. Saratoga shows the widest valuation gap in WIN17, but the number needs care: a 1.17x PER is driven by mark-to-market gains on the investment portfolio, not core operating earnings — typical of a holding company. Q1 2026 swung to a Rp5.32tn profit from a Rp6.07tn loss a year earlier, on a fair-value recovery in holdings like MDKA and AADI. The more relevant lens is the discount to NAV, not the absolute PER — hence a Medium-Low confidence rating, versus Medium for the rest of WIN17. TESIS INVESTASI Investment Thesis DAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attractions & RisksMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Kuartal I-2026 berbalik untung Rp5,32 triliun dari rugi Rp6,07 triliun setahun sebelumnya, didorong pemulihan nilai portofolio investasi. Direktur Lany Djuwita membeli 806.200 saham senilai Rp1,25 miliar pada 1 Jul 2026 — sinyal keyakinan insider di harga diskon. Historis diperdagangkan diskon besar terhadap NAV (~40–50%), dengan portofolio blue-chip di AADI, MDKA & TBIG. A Q1 profit turnaround on portfolio revaluation, insider buying at a discounted price, and a historically wide discount to NAV backed by blue-chip holdings.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Confidence Medium-Low — valuasi holding perlu divalidasi lewat diskon NAV, bukan PER absolut yang noisy. Laba sangat sensitif terhadap pergerakan mark-to-market harga komoditas (batu bara, emas, nikel) dan saham portofolio. Komisaris Joyce Soeryadjaya Kerr mengundurkan diri (8 Jul 2026), menunggu hasil RUPS — perlu dipantau dari sisi tata kelola. A Medium-Low confidence rating pending NAV validation, earnings highly sensitive to mark-to-market swings in commodities and portfolio stocks, and a commissioner resignation to watch on governance grounds. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU17 Jun 202601 Jul 202608 Jul 2026SRTG cetak laba Rp5,32 triliun di kuartal I-2026, berbalik dari rugi tahun laluDampak ke tesis: Keuntungan investasi saham & efek Rp6,91 triliun membalik kerugian mark-to-market tahun sebelumnya; beban bunga turun 58%. Impact: Rp6.91tn of investment gains reversed last year's mark-to-market loss; interest expense fell 58%.Direktur Saratoga Lany Djuwita borong saham SRTG senilai Rp1,25 miliarDampak ke tesis: Transaksi rutin dilaporkan sesuai POJK 4/2024 pada harga Rp1.560; skala kecil namun sinyal keyakinan insider. Impact: Routine POJK 4/2024 disclosure at Rp1,560; small in scale but signals insider confidence.Komisaris Saratoga Joyce Soeryadjaya Kerr mundur, tunggu hasil RUPSDampak ke tesis: Perubahan susunan pengurus perlu dipantau; belum ada indikasi dampak terhadap strategi investasi portofolio. Impact: A board change worth monitoring; no indication yet of impact on portfolio investment strategy.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · STRG6,917 6,844 5,321 871 68,512 68,658 4,444 64,186 64,214 27.26% 29.16% 1.26x 0.37x4,140 3,911 7,322 793 62,367 62,500 3,598 58,877 58,902 11.72% 12.44% 2.93x 0.36x1,478 1,247 3,292 734 57,775 57,898 6,186 51,689 51,712 5.69% 6.37% 8.61x 0.55x(11,002) (11,223) (10,151) 647 50,903 51,011 2,173 48,817 48,838 -19.90% -20.79% -2.19x 0.46x6,339 6,107 4,626 809 63,668 63,804 4,037 59,741 59,767 7.25% 7.74% 7.42x 0.57x 1,57%9,0%12,4%6,37x1,17x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flo
TKIMPabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia TbkMaterials ·Produsen kertas budaya, industri & alat tulis, bagian grup Sinar Mas ·Tercatat di BEI sejak 1990 Materials · Cultural, industrial paper & stationery producer, part of Sinar Mas Group · Listed on IDX since 1990PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 2 Strong opportunity — valuasi/prospek menarik, risiko terkelola attractive valuation/outlook, managed riskRp 7.150 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 5.400 base price 30 JunRp 13.852 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+94% PER termurah di materials WIN17 the cheapest materials name in WIN17Dokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicTjiwi Kimia diperdagangkan pada PER termurah di antara nama materials WIN17 (3,7x), dengan gap valuasi lebar namun posisinya lebih taktis karena volatilitas earnings pulp & kertas. RUPST 23 Jun 2026 menetapkan dividen tunai Rp30/saham, dibayar 24 Jul 2026. Laba kuartal I-2026 justru menurun ke Rp1,38 triliun dari Rp1,64 triliun yoy, mencerminkan tekanan harga pulp global yang belum sepenuhnya mereda. BEI menunjuk Phintraco Sekuritas sebagai penyedia likuiditas untuk TKIM hingga akhir Agustus 2026, langkah struktural yang dapat menstabilkan perdagangan sahamnya. Tjiwi Kimia trades at the cheapest multiple among WIN17's materials names (3.7x), with a wide valuation gap but a more tactical positioning given pulp-and-paper earnings volatility. The June AGM approved a Rp30/share cash dividend, paid 24 July 2026. Q1 2026 profit actually fell to Rp1.38tn from Rp1.64tn yoy, reflecting still- unresolved global pulp price pressure. IDX appointed Phintraco Sekuritas as TKIM's liquidity provider through end-August 2026, a structural step that could stabilise trading. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it BEI menunjuk Phintraco Sekuritas sebagai liquidity provider TKIM (20 Apr–31 Agu 2026), berpotensi menstabilkan perdagangan. Dividen tunai Rp30/saham disetujui RUPST 23 Jun 2026, dibayar 24 Jul 2026. Bagian dari duo pulp-kertas Sinarmas bersama INKP yang tengah bergeser ke fase monetisasi pasca capex besar. A new IDX liquidity provider, an approved cash dividend, and exposure to the Sinarmas pulp-paper duo's shift into a monetisation phase.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Laba bersih kuartal I-2026 turun ke Rp1,38 triliun dari Rp1,64 triliun yoy akibat tekanan harga pulp global. Earnings sangat volatil mengikuti siklus harga pulp dan permintaan ekspor dari Tiongkok & Eropa. Dividend yield historis kecil (~0,4%), sehingga daya tarik utama tetap pada re-rating valuasi, bukan cash return. Q1 profit declined on global pulp price pressure, earnings track a volatile pulp cycle and China/Europe export demand, and the historical dividend yield is minimal, leaving the thesis reliant on valuation re-rating. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU17 Apr 202625 Jun 202604 Mei 2026BEI tunjuk Phintraco Sekuritas sebagai liquidity provider TKIM hingga Agustus 2026Dampak ke tesis: Penunjukan resmi BEI (berlaku s.d. 31 Agustus 2026) untuk meningkatkan aktivitas perdagangan dan stabilitas harga TKIM. Impact: Official IDX appointment (through 31 Aug 2026) intended to boost trading activity and price stability for TKIM.TKIM segera distribusi dividen Rp30 per saham, dibayar 24 Juli 2026Dampak ke tesis: Keputusan rutin RUPST 23 Jun 2026; dividend yield kecil (~0,4%), tidak mengubah tesis valuasi utama. Impact: Routine 23 Jun AGM decision; the small ~0.4% yield doesn't change the core valuation thesis.Laba bersih TKIM kuartal I-2026 turun jadi Rp1,38 triliun dari Rp1,64 triliun yoyDampak ke tesis: Penurunan laba mencerminkan tekanan harga pulp yang belum sepenuhnya pulih; perlu dipantau pada laporan berikutnya. Impact: The profit decline reflects still-unresolved pulp price pressure; worth watching in the next report.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · TKIM4,685 553 3,172 1,087 11,813 74,811 17,348 57,464 57,464 9.99% 13.00% 2.25x 0.29x4,409 551 1,378 991 10,772 68,218 16,607 51,610 51,610 6.30% 8.32% 6.44x 0.54x16,222 1,929 4,532 953 10,358 65,597 16,166 49,431 49,431 6.91% 9.17% 5.08x 0.47x15,619 1,952 4,722 906 9,840 62,312 19,045 43,268 43,268 7.58% 10.91% 3.93x 0.43x16,364 2,638 2,614 813 8,834 55,943 19,111 36,832 36,832 4.67% 7.10% 8.69x 0.62x16,958 2,083 6,918 803 8,725 55,255 20,669 34,586 34,586 12.52% 20.00% 3.28x 0.66x 3,77%3,5%9,4%9,44x3,68x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact
TOWRSarana Menara Nusantara TbkCommunication Services · Penyedia menara telekomunikasi independen terbesar di Indonesia (Protelindo), Grup Djarum· Tercatat di BEI sejak 2010 Communication Services · Indonesia's largest independent telecom tower operator (Protelindo), part of Djarum Group · Listed on IDX since 2010PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 2 Strong opportunity — valuasi/prospek menarik, risiko terkelola attractive valuation/outlook, managed riskRp 394 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 364 base price 30 JunRp 728 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+85% arus kas stabil, defensif terhadap siklus stablecash flows, defensive to the cycleDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicSarana Menara diperdagangkan pada PER rendah (5,7x) untuk bisnis dengan arus kas berulang dari sewa menara jangka panjang — model yang secara struktural defensif terhadap siklus ekonomi. Laba bersih kuartal I-2026 naik 20,75% yoy menjadi Rp972 miliar, ditopang pertumbuhan pendapatan sewa. Dividen final Rp6,89/saham telah dibayarkan 19 Jun 2026, melengkapi total dividen Rp800 miliar untuk tahun buku 2025. Meski demikian, Sucor Sekuritas memproyeksikan pertumbuhan laba ke depan hanya di kisaran satu digit rendah — gap valuasi yang lebar mencerminkan multiple rendah untuk pertumbuhan yang stabil namun tidak lagi eksplosif. Sarana Menara trades at a low 5.7x PER for a business built on long-dated, recurring tower-lease cash flow — a structurally defensive model through the cycle. Q1 2026 net profit rose 20.75% yoy to Rp972bn, driven by lease revenue growth. A Rp6.89/share final dividend was paid 19 June 2026, completing Rp800bn in total FY2025 distributions. Still, Sucor Sekuritas projects only low-single-digit future profit growth — the wide valuation gap reflects a low multiple for steady, if no longer explosive, growth. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Laba bersih kuartal I-2026 naik 20,75% yoy menjadi Rp972 miliar, ditopang pendapatan sewa menara yang tumbuh 10,82% yoy. Total dividen Rp800 miliar untuk tahun buku 2025 (interim + final Rp6,89/saham) telah tuntas dibayarkan Jun 2026. Model bisnis arus kas berulang dari kontrak sewa jangka panjang, defensif terhadap siklus makro. Strong Q1 profit growth on rising lease revenue, a completed FY2025 dividend payout, and a recurring, macro-defensive cash-flow model.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Sucor Sekuritas memproyeksikan pertumbuhan laba ke depan hanya satu digit rendah — momentum ekspansi mulai melandai. Persaingan konsolidasi operator telekomunikasi dapat menekan permintaan sewa menara baru. Sensitif terhadap suku bunga karena struktur permodalan yang memakai utang untuk ekspansi menara & fiber. Analysts project only low-single-digit forward profit growth, telecom operator consolidation could dampen new tower demand, and the business is rate-sensitive given debt-funded tower and fibre expansion. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU07 Jun 202622 Mei 202608 Jun 2026Laba bersih TOWR naik 20,75% yoy jadi Rp972 miliar di kuartal I-2026Dampak ke tesis: Pendapatan sewa tumbuh 10,82% yoy menjadi Rp2,87 triliun, motor utama pertumbuhan laba double-digit. Impact: Lease revenue grew 10.82% yoy to Rp2.87tn, the main driver of double-digit profit growth.TOWR bagikan dividen final Rp6,89 per saham, dibayar 19 Juni 2026Dampak ke tesis: Total dividen tahun buku 2025 mencapai Rp800 miliar; kebijakan payout konsisten, tidak mengubah tesis utama. Impact: Total FY2025 dividends reached Rp800bn; a consistent payout policy that doesn't change the core thesis.Sucor Sekuritas: pertumbuhan laba TOWR ke depan diperkirakan satu digit rendahDampak ke tesis: Meski kuartal I kuat, proyeksi pertumbuhan jangka menengah melandai — relevan untuk menilai kewajaran gap +100%. Impact: Despite a strong Q1, medium-term growth projections are moderating — relevant when assessing the +100% gap.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · TOWR3,650 2,684 948 941 6,292 81,786 52,697 28,536 29,089 4.83% 13.86% 5.44x 0.75x3,556 2,634 972 934 6,241 81,121 52,657 27,923 28,464 4.74% 13.78% 7.68x 1.06x13,327 10,571 3,682 891 5,958 77,448 49,930 26,995 27,518 4.75% 13.64% 9.39x 1.28x12,736 10,364 3,364 897 5,992 77,895 58,428 19,097 19,467 4.32% 17.62% 9.93x 1.75x11,741 11,159 3,304 788 5,264 68,430 51,650 16,461 16,780 4.83% 20.07% 15.29x 3.07x11,036 9,134 3,497 753 5,032 65,407 50,724 14,405 14,684 5.35% 24.28% 16.05x 3.90x 4,48%6,0%13,2%11,46x5,73x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current
AADIAdaro Andalan Indonesia TbkEnergy ·Produsen & eksportir batu bara termal, hasil spin-off dari Adaro Energy ·Tercatat di BEI sejak 2024 Energy · Thermal coal producer & exporter, spun off from Adaro Energy · Listed on IDX since 2024PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 2 Strong opportunity — valuasi/prospek menarik, risiko terkelola attractive valuation/outlook, managed riskHARGA TERKINI (23 JUL) current priceRp 9.175 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 7.775 base price 30 JunRp 13.069 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+42% valuasi murah, bobot dibatasi risiko harga batu bara cheap valuation, weight capped for coal-price riskDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicAADI diperdagangkan pada PER 5,4x dengan ROE solid 15%, namun kuartal I-2026 tertekan — laba turun 27% yoy menjadi US$143 juta akibat volume produksi lebih rendah di tengah ketidakpastian kuota RKAB dan pelemahan ekspor batu bara nasional. Analis menilai pelemahan ini bersifat sementara: aktivitas pre-stripping yang meningkat mengindikasikan kesiapan produksi, dan potensi keuntungan satu kali dari divestasi Kestrel Coal Mine (US$195–470 juta, ditargetkan rampung September 2026) dapat menjadi pendorong laba signifikan. Ciptadana dan MNC Sekuritas mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy dengan target di kisaran Rp13.400–13.750. AADI trades at 5.4x earnings with a solid 15% ROE, but Q1 2026 was weak — profit fell 27% yoy to US$143m on lower production amid RKAB quota uncertainty and softer national coal exports. Analysts see the weakness as temporary: rising pre-stripping activity signals production readiness, and a potential one-off gain from the Kestrel Coal Mine divestment (US$195–470m, targeted for September 2026 completion) could be a meaningful profit driver. Ciptadana and MNC Sekuritas maintain Buy ratings with targets around Rp13,400–13,750. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Potensi keuntungan satu kali dari divestasi Kestrel Coal Mine (US$195–470 juta), ditargetkan rampung September 2026. Analis (Ciptadana, MNC) mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy dengan target Rp13.400–13.750 meski kinerja Q1 lemah. Aktivitas pre-stripping meningkat, sinyal produksi bersifat sementara tertekan, bukan struktural. A potential large one-off gain from the Kestrel divestment, maintained Buy ratings despite a weak Q1, and rising pre-stripping activity signalling the slowdown is temporary.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Ekspor batu bara Indonesia turun 7,27% yoy (nilai) dan 6,70% yoy (volume) pada Jan–Apr 2026, menekan emiten batu bara termasuk AADI. Laba kuartal I-2026 turun 27% yoy akibat volume produksi lebih rendah di tengah ketidakpastian kuota RKAB. AADI menyalurkan pinjaman Rp1,64 triliun ke anak usaha KPI — perlu dipantau meski di bawah ambang batas transaksi material. National coal exports fell in Jan–Apr 2026, pressuring coal names including AADI; Q1 profit dropped 27% yoy on lower production amid RKAB uncertainty; and a Rp1.64tn intercompany loan to subsidiary KPI is worth monitoring. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU05 Mei 202603 Jul 2026Jul 2026Analis pertahankan Buy AADI, potensi gain divestasi Kestrel US$195–470 jutaDampak ke tesis: Ciptadana pertahankan target Rp13.400; pelemahan Q1 dinilai gangguan sementara, bukan kerusakan fundamental jangka panjang. Impact: Ciptadana maintains a Rp13,400 target; the Q1 weakness is seen as a temporary disruption, not long-term fundamental damage.AADI salurkan pinjaman Rp1,64 triliun ke anak usaha KPI untuk pengembangan proyekDampak ke tesis: Transaksi afiliasi di bawah ambang batas material (POJK 17/2020); tidak mengubah posisi aset, liabilitas, atau laba. Impact: An affiliated transaction below the material-transaction threshold; doesn't change asset, liability, or profit positions.Ekspor batu bara Indonesia turun Jan–Apr 2026, menekan emiten batu bara termasuk AADIDampak ke tesis: Nilai ekspor turun 7,27% yoy dan volume turun 6,70% yoy; analis proyeksikan tekanan ini terlihat pada hasil Q2-2026. Impact: Export value fell 7.27% yoy and volume 6.70% yoy; analysts expect this pressure to show up in Q2 2026 results.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · AADI17,603 3,991 2,592 15,567 30,726 98,408 34,098 59,093 64,310 13.15% 21.89% 6.79x 1.49x80,926 19,216 13,992 15,091 29,786 95,397 34,753 55,725 60,645 14.67% 25.11% 3.97x 1.00x84,382 15,008 21,154 15,320 30,239 96,847 44,149 48,423 52,698 21.84% 43.69% 3.12x 1.36xn.a. n.a. n.a. 17,258 34,065 109,101 35,718 67,431 73,383 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.00xn.a. n.a. n.a. 19,644 38,774 124,183
ERAAErajaya Swasembada TbkConsumer Discretionary · Distributor & peritel gadget/elektronik terbesar di Indonesia · Tercatat di BEI sejak 2011 Consumer Discretionary · Indonesia's largest gadget & electronics distributor/retailer · Listed on IDX since 2011PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 2 Strong opportunity — valuasi/prospek menarik, risiko terkelola attractive valuation/outlook, managed riskRp 458 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 350 base price 30 JunRp 788 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+72% masuk Layer 2 menggantikan SMAR (pleno 23 Jul 2026) Layer 2 replacing SMAR (23 Jul 2026 committee decision)Dokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicErajaya baru masuk Layer 2 WIN17 menggantikan SMAR (keputusan pleno investasi 23 Jul 2026), dengan Current PER 3,8x sangat murah dan ROE sehat 15,8%. Same-store sales growth tetap positif 7,2% hingga Mei 2026, ditopang penjualan flagship seperti iPhone. Analis Samuel Sekuritas memproyeksikan laba kuartal III- 2026 melonjak 53% yoy seiring tren up-trading ke ponsel premium, meski kuartal II diperkirakan datar akibat basis pembanding tinggi. RUPST 29 Jun 2026 menyetujui dividen Rp25/saham, dibayar 31 Jul 2026. Erajaya has just entered WIN17's Layer 2 replacing SMAR (23 Jul 2026 committee decision), trading at a very cheap 3.8x PER with a healthy 15.8% ROE. Same- store sales growth stayed positive at 7.2% through May 2026, supported by flagship sales like iPhone. Samuel Sekuritas projects Q3 2026 profit to jump 53% yoy on premium-phone up-trading, though Q2 is expected flat against a high comparison base. The 29 Jun AGM approved a Rp25/share dividend, paid 31 Jul 2026. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Laba bersih kuartal III-2026 diproyeksikan melonjak 53% yoy seiring tren up- trading ke ponsel premium (Samuel Sekuritas). Same-store sales growth tetap positif 7,2% hingga Mei 2026, ditopang penjualan flagship seperti iPhone. Dividen tunai Rp389,62 miliar (Rp25/saham) disetujui RUPST 29 Jun 2026, dibayar 31 Jul 2026. A projected 53% yoy Q3 profit jump on premium-phone up-trading, positive same- store sales growth, and an approved cash dividend.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Kinerja kuartal II-2026 diperkirakan datar akibat basis pembanding tinggi dari penjualan iPhone 16 tahun sebelumnya. Harga saham masih tertekan — turun ~11% year-to-date per awal Juli 2026 meski fundamental solid. Rentan terhadap pelemahan rupiah karena sebagian besar produk bersifat impor; dimitigasi dengan front-loaded inventory. Q2 2026 is expected flat against a high iPhone 16 comparison base, the stock remains down ~11% YTD despite solid fundamentals, and rupiah weakness poses a risk given import-heavy inventory, partly mitigated by front-loaded stocking. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU18 Jul 202601 Jul 202618 Jul 2026Laba ERAA diproyeksi melonjak 53% di kuartal III- 2026 seiring tren up-trading ponsel premiumDampak ke tesis: Samuel Sekuritas catat SSSG tetap positif 7,2% hingga Mei 2026; strategi front-loaded inventory redam risiko rupiah. Impact: Samuel Sekuritas notes SSSG stayed positive at 7.2% through May 2026; front-loaded inventory strategy tempers rupiah risk.RUPST ERAA setujui dividen tunai Rp389,62 miliar (Rp25/saham), dibayar 31 Juli 2026Dampak ke tesis: Dividend yield sekitar 6,8% pada harga saat pengumuman; keputusan rutin sesuai kinerja tahun buku 2025. Impact: A roughly 6.8% yield at the announcement price; a routine decision reflecting FY2025 performance.Kinerja ERAA kuartal II-2026 diperkirakan datar akibat basis pembanding tinggiDampak ke tesis: Basis tinggi dari penjualan iPhone 16 yang tertunda tahun lalu membuat pertumbuhan Q2 tertahan sebelum akselerasi Q3. Impact: A high base from last year's delayed iPhone 16 sales keeps Q2 growth muted ahead of the Q3 acceleration.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · ERAA20,482 1,039 376 1,309 18,491 29,292 18,342 9,484 10,950 5.39% 16.65% 3.69x 0.61x22,413 1,180 496 1,416 19,997 31,678 20,644 9,557 11,034 5.04% 16.71% 3.78x 0.63x76,607 3,890 1,313 1,291 18,227 28,873 18,331 9,131 10,543 4.55% 14.38% 5.08x 0.73x65,280 3,276 1,120 971 13,706 21,712 12,343 8,114 9,368 5.16% 13.80% 5.75x 0.79x60,139 3,165 858 913 12,898 20,432 11,977 7,323 8,455 4.20% 11.72% 8.07x 0.95x49,472 2,438 1,076 763 10,780 17,077 9,279 6,755 7,798 6.30% 15.93% 6.05x 0.96x 1,80%9,0%15,8%8,60x3,82x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAM
AUTOAstra Otoparts TbkConsumer Discretionary · Produsen & distributor komponen otomotif, bagian Grup Astra · Tercatat di BEI sejak 1998 Consumer Discretionary · Automotive components manufacturer & distributor, part of Astra Group · Listed on IDX since 1998PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 2 Strong opportunity — valuasi/prospek menarik, risiko terkelola attractive valuation/outlook, managed riskRp 2.800 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 2.350 base price 30 JunRp 3.861 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+38% valuasi murah, leverage ke siklus otomotif cheap valuation, leveraged to the auto cycleDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicAstra Otoparts diperdagangkan pada PER 5,1x dengan ROE 14,6%, dan baru membuktikan ketangguhannya: laba semester I-2026 naik 22,6% yoy menjadi Rp1,2 triliun, pendapatan naik 13,2% yoy menjadi Rp10,9 triliun — di tengah rupiah lemah dan bahan baku mahal. Pertumbuhan ditopang permintaan OEM dan aftermarket, sambil memperluas ekosistem kendaraan listrik lewat 70 unit Astra Otopower. Valuasi murah untuk laba yang tumbuh dua digit membentuk margin of safety yang solid. Astra Otoparts trades at a 5.1x PER with a 14.6% ROE, and has just shown resilience: H1 2026 profit rose 22.6% yoy to Rp1.2tn, revenue up 13.2% yoy to Rp10.9tn — despite rupiah weakness and costlier raw materials. Growth came from OEM and aftermarket demand, while the company expands its EV ecosystem via 70 Astra Otopower units. A cheap multiple against double-digit profit growth builds a solid margin of safety. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Laba bersih semester I-2026 naik 22,6% yoy menjadi Rp1,2 triliun; pendapatan naik 13,2% yoy menjadi Rp10,9 triliun. Pertumbuhan ditopang dua segmen: manufaktur (+11,6% yoy) dan perdagangan/aftermarket (+15,1% yoy). Ekspansi ekosistem kendaraan listrik — 70 unit Astra Otopower di 60 lokasi — membuka sumber pertumbuhan baru. Double-digit H1 profit and revenue growth across both manufacturing and aftermarket segments, plus a growing EV-charging ecosystem as a new growth avenue.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah dan kenaikan harga bahan baku tetap menjadi tekanan margin yang disebutkan manajemen sendiri. Pasar mobil nasional secara umum masih lesu; GIIAS diharapkan menjadi katalis semester II tapi belum terealisasi. Leverage ke siklus otomotif berarti permintaan OEM dapat melambat jika daya beli masyarakat tertekan. Rupiah weakness and rising raw material costs remain a margin pressure flagged by management itself, the national car market is still soft pending a hoped-for GIIAS boost, and OEM demand is cycle-leveraged to consumer purchasing power. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU27 Jul 202627 Jul 202628 Jul 2026Laba Astra Otoparts naik 22,6% yoy jadi Rp1,2 triliun di semester I-2026Dampak ke tesis: Segmen manufaktur tumbuh 11,6% yoy dan perdagangan 15,1% yoy; pendapatan konsolidasian naik 13,2% yoy ke Rp10,9 triliun. Impact: Manufacturing grew 11.6% yoy and trading 15.1% yoy; consolidated revenue rose 13.2% yoy to Rp10.9tn.Astra Otoparts operasikan 70 unit Astra Otopower di 60 lokasi untuk ekosistem EVDampak ke tesis: Bagian dari diversifikasi jangka panjang ke komponen xEV; kontribusi pendapatan masih kecil relatif terhadap bisnis inti. Impact: Part of a long-term xEV diversification push; revenue contribution is still small relative to the core business.Pelemahan rupiah dan kenaikan harga bahan baku tetap jadi tekanan bagi AUTODampak ke tesis: Manajemen mengakui tekanan biaya ini di tengah laba yang tumbuh — margin ke depan perlu dipantau bila rupiah terus melemah. Impact: Management itself flags this cost pressure even as profit grows — forward margins bear watching if the rupiah keeps weakening.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · AUTO5,596 428 594 4,294 11,026 23,871 6,713 15,957 17,158 10.59% 15.84% 4.48x 0.71x5,257 461 569 4,243 10,894 23,586 6,164 16,203 17,423 10.12% 14.73% 5.27x 0.78x19,906 1,822 2,348 4,071 10,454 22,633 5,789 15,665 16,844 10.37% 14.99% 5.52x 0.83x19,074 1,606 2,183 3,785 9,719 21,042 5,615 14,347 15,427 10.37% 15.22% 5.17x 0.79x18,649 1,951 2,012 3,525 9,050 19,594 5,248 13,342 14,346 10.27% 15.08% 5.65x 0.85x18,580 1,470 1,474 3,335 8,563 18,539 5,714 11,928 12,826 7.95% 12.36% 4.77x 0.59x 1,73%7,0%14,6%8,38x5,10x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis RINGKA
SIMPSalim Ivomas Pratama TbkConsumer Staples · Agribisnis kelapa sawit terintegrasi hulu-hilir, bagian Grup Salim/Indofood· Tercatat di BEI sejak 1992 Consumer Staples · Integrated upstream-downstream palm oil agribusiness, part of Salim/Indofood Group · Listed on IDX since 1992PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 3 Selective opportunity — lebih taktis, perlu monitoring lebih ketat more tactical, needs closer monitoringRp 595 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 525 base price 30 JunRp 817 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+37% agribisnis CPO terintegrasi, laba siklikal integrated CPO agribusiness, cyclical earningsDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicSalim Ivomas diperdagangkan pada PER 4,0x untuk bisnis agrikultur sawit terintegrasi hulu-hilir. Laba tahun buku 2025 tumbuh 33% yoy menjadi Rp2,07 triliun, mendorong dividen Rp26/saham — naik 30% dari tahun sebelumnya — disetujui RUPST 25 Jun 2026 dan dibayarkan 28 Jul 2026. Namun kuartal I-2026 justru tertekan: laba turun tipis 3,1% yoy menjadi Rp434 miliar akibat kenaikan biaya produksi 7,6% yang menggerus margin. Investor kawakan Lo Kheng Hong tetap memegang 5,14% saham, sejalan dengan pandangannya bahwa SIMP undervalued berkat model bisnis terintegrasi dari kebun hingga produk konsumen. Salim Ivomas trades at a 4.0x PER for an integrated upstream-downstream palm oil business. FY2025 profit grew 33% yoy to Rp2.07tn, driving a Rp26/share dividend — up 30% from the prior year — approved 25 Jun 2026 and paid 28 Jul 2026. Yet Q1 2026 was under pressure: profit slipped 3.1% yoy to Rp434bn as a 7.6% rise in production costs squeezed margins. Veteran value investor Lo Kheng Hong still holds a 5.14% stake, consistent with his view that SIMP is undervalued given its integrated plantation-to-consumer-product model. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Dividen tunai Rp26/saham (Rp403 miliar) untuk tahun buku 2025, naik 30% dari tahun sebelumnya, dibayar 28 Jul 2026. Laba tahun buku 2025 tumbuh 33% yoy menjadi Rp2,07 triliun; core profit naik 26% yoy menjadi Rp2,91 triliun. Investor value kawakan Lo Kheng Hong memegang 5,14% saham, sejalan dengan tesis undervaluation. A 30%-larger dividend from strong FY2025 profit growth, and a notable value investor's continued 5.14% stake.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Laba kuartal I-2026 turun 3,1% yoy menjadi Rp434 miliar akibat kenaikan biaya produksi 7,6% yang menekan margin. Beberapa sekuritas merevisi turun estimasi laba tahunan sekitar 23–25% pasca hasil Q1. Laba sangat bergantung pada siklus harga CPO dan kebijakan biodiesel B50 yang belum sepenuhnya terealisasi. Q1 2026 profit fell 3.1% yoy on rising production costs, some brokers cut full-year estimates 23-25% after Q1, and profits remain highly dependent on the CPO cycle and the not-yet-fully-realised B50 biodiesel policy. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU27 Feb 202626 Jun 202606 Mei 2026Laba SIMP tahun buku 2025 naik 33% yoy menjadi Rp2,07 triliunDampak ke tesis: Core profit naik 26% yoy menjadi Rp2,91 triliun; net gearing turun ke 0,04x, neraca semakin sehat. Impact: Core profit rose 26% yoy to Rp2.91tn; net gearing fell to 0.04x, a healthier balance sheet.SIMP bagikan dividen Rp26/saham, naik 30% yoy, Lo Kheng Hong raup Rp20,7 miliarDampak ke tesis: Payout ratio 19,5% dari laba bersih 2025; keputusan rutin RUPST, tidak mengubah tesis valuasi utama. Impact: A 19.5% payout ratio of FY2025 profit; a routine AGM decision that doesn't change the core valuation thesis.Laba SIMP kuartal I-2026 turun 3,1% yoy akibat kenaikan biaya produksiDampak ke tesis: Margin laba kotor menyusut ke 22,5%; analis tetap Buy dengan target Rp870 seiring prospek CPO & B50. Impact: Gross margin narrowed to 22.5%; analysts maintain Buy with a Rp870 target on the CPO and B50 outlook.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · SIMP4,755 1,343 652 9,006 16,299 42,308 15,058 20,952 27,250 7.21% 14.55% 2.67x 0.39x4,869 1,156 586 8,883 16,077 41,731 14,594 20,865 27,136 6.78% 13.56% 3.57x 0.48x21,056 5,463 2,821 8,799 15,925 41,338 14,795 20,409 26,543 6.82% 13.82% 3.22x 0.45x15,968 4,744 2,183 7,918 14,331 37,200 12,827 18,741 24,373 5.87% 11.65% 2.82x 0.33x16,002 4,064 927 7,488 13,552 35,176 12,568 17,384 22,608 2.64% 5.33% 6.68x 0.36x17,794 4,297 1,510 7,653 13,851 35,952 14,010 16,872 21,942 4.20% 8.95% 4.42x 0.40x 0,79%8,0%10,1%6,16x3,96x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPA
BBTNBank Tabungan Negara TbkFinancials · Bank BUMN spesialis pembiayaan perumahan (KPR) terbesar di Indonesia ·Tercatat di BEI sejak 2009 Financials · Indonesia's largest state-owned mortgage-financing bank · Listed on IDX since 2009PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 3 Selective opportunity — lebih taktis, perlu monitoring lebih ketat more tactical, needs closer monitoringRp 1.235 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 1.100 base price 30 JunRp 1.704 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+38% tactical KPR/properti, risiko NIM & kualitas kredit mortgage/property play, NIM & credit-quality riskDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicBTN diperdagangkan pada PER 4,6x, dan baru mencatat hasil yang jauh melampaui ekspektasi: laba bersih semester I-2026 melonjak 41% yoy menjadi Rp2,4 triliun, dengan laba kuartal II sendiri naik 61% yoy — level kuartalan tertinggi sejak 2019 — didorong penurunan tajam biaya pencadangan seiring membaiknya kualitas aset. Manajemen mempertahankan seluruh panduan 2026 meski mengantisipasi likuiditas lebih ketat di semester II akibat kenaikan suku bunga dan tingginya SRBI beredar. Basis investor turut membaik, mengakhiri tren penyusutan dua bulan. BTN trades at a 4.6x PER, and has just posted results well ahead of expectations: H1 2026 net profit jumped 41% yoy to Rp2.4tn, with Q2 profit alone up 61% yoy — the highest quarterly level since 2019 — driven by a sharp drop in provisioning costs as asset quality improves. Management maintained all 2026 guidance despite anticipating tighter H2 liquidity from rising rates and elevated SRBI outstanding. The investor base also improved, ending a two-month decline. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Laba bersih semester I-2026 melonjak 41% yoy menjadi Rp2,4 triliun; laba Q2 saja naik 61% yoy, tertinggi sejak 2019. Biaya pencadangan (CoC) turun signifikan 61% yoy seiring membaiknya kualitas aset; day past due 24 bulan turun ke 5,5%. Basis investor SID naik 3,69% mom di Juni 2026, mengakhiri tren penurunan dua bulan berturut-turut. A 41% H1 profit jump on sharply lower provisioning, improving asset quality metrics, and a recovering retail investor base.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Manajemen mengantisipasi likuiditas lebih ketat di semester II-2026 akibat kenaikan suku bunga dan SRBI beredar yang mencapai rekor. Kenaikan biaya dana (CoF) berpotensi menekan margin meski dapat terdilusi oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit. Sebagai bank KPR, sensitif terhadap siklus suku bunga dan daya beli sektor properti. Management flags tighter H2 2026 liquidity from rising rates and record SRBI outstanding, rising cost of funds could pressure margins, and as a mortgage specialist BTN stays sensitive to the rate cycle and property affordability. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU18 Jul 202611 Jul 2026Jul 2026Laba BBTN melonjak 41% di semester I-2026, kualitas kredit terus membaikDampak ke tesis: Ciptadana Sekuritas pertahankan Buy dengan target Rp1.925; laba Q2 capai Rp1,3 triliun, +61% yoy. Impact: Ciptadana Sekuritas maintains Buy with a Rp1,925 target; Q2 profit alone reached Rp1.3tn, +61% yoy.Jumlah investor BBTN kembali melonjak per Juni 2026, akhiri tren penurunan dua bulanDampak ke tesis: SID tumbuh 3,69% mom menjadi 47.499; sinyal minat ritel yang mulai pulih, tidak mengubah tesis fundamental. Impact: SIDs grew 3.69% mom to 47,499; a sign of recovering retail interest, though it doesn't change the fundamental thesis.Manajemen BBTN antisipasi likuiditas lebih ketat di semester II-2026Dampak ke tesis: SRBI beredar mencapai rekor tertinggi sejak diluncurkan; kenaikan CoF berpotensi menekan margin di H2. Impact: Outstanding SRBI hit a record high since launch; rising cost of funds could pressure H2 margins.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · BBTN8,319 1,781 1,294 1,835 n.a. 539,167 501,659 37,507 37,507 0.78% 11.19% 3.80x 0.43x8,013 1,655 1,108 1,795 n.a. 527,619 490,808 36,811 36,811 0.70% 10.07% 4.87x 0.49x36,340 5,132 3,501 1,772 n.a. 520,870 484,676 36,193 36,193 0.67% 9.67% 4.85x 0.47x29,542 4,556 3,008 1,574 n.a. 462,500 429,930 32,570 32,570 0.65% 9.24% 5.32x 0.49x28,282 5,590 3,500 1,497 n.a. 440,000 409,538 30,462 30,462 0.80% 11.49% 5.15x 0.59x25,908 4,444 3,045 1,379 n.a. 405,263 379,337 25,926 25,926 0.75% 11.75% 4.70x 0.55x 4,11%9,0%12,0%7,08x4,57x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis R
CTRACiputra Development TbkReal Estate ·Pengembang properti residensial & township terkemuka di Indonesia · Tercatat di BEI sejak 1994 Real Estate · Leading residential property & township developer in Indonesia · Listed on IDX since 1994PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 3 Selective opportunity — lebih taktis, perlu monitoring lebih ketat more tactical, needs closer monitoringRp 615 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 555 base price 30 JunRp 844 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+37% sensitif suku bunga, potensi rerating bila turun rate-sensitive, re-rating potential if rates fallDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicCiputra diperdagangkan pada PER 3,7x, murah bahkan untuk sektor properti yang sedang lesu. Manajemen sendiri memproyeksikan laba dan pendapatan 2026 turun 10% akibat suku bunga tinggi dan pelemahan daya beli, dengan marketing sales semester I-2026 turun 18% yoy menjadi Rp4,69 triliun. Namun pergeseran permintaan ke segmen menengah-atas (>Rp2 miliar, kini 67% dari pre-sales) dinilai lebih resilien, dan Maybank mempertahankan rekomendasi buy dengan target Rp850 didukung peluncuran proyek baru seperti Citra Homes Halim dan Citra Bukit Golf Sentul. Ciputra trades at a 3.7x PER, cheap even for a soft property sector. Management itself projects 2026 profit and revenue down 10% on high rates and weaker purchasing power, with H1 2026 marketing sales down 18% yoy to Rp4.69tn. Yet the shift toward the more resilient upper-middle segment (>Rp2bn, now 67% of pre- sales) is notable, and Maybank maintains a buy rating with an Rp850 target on new project launches like Citra Homes Halim and Citra Bukit Golf Sentul. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Maybank pertahankan rekomendasi buy dengan target Rp850, jauh di atas target sekuritas lain, didukung proyek baru. Pergeseran permintaan ke segmen menengah-atas (>Rp2 miliar) kini 67% dari pre-sales, dari 61% setahun lalu — segmen lebih resilien. Dividen tunai Rp36/saham (Rp667,28 miliar) disetujui RUPST 26 Jun 2026, dibayar 24 Jul 2026. A maintained Buy rating with a well-above-market target, a resilience-favouring shift to the upper-middle segment, and an approved cash dividend.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Marketing sales semester I-2026 turun 18% yoy menjadi Rp4,69 triliun di tengah suku bunga tinggi. Manajemen sendiri memproyeksikan laba dan pendapatan 2026 turun 10% dari tahun sebelumnya. Sangat sensitif terhadap siklus suku bunga BI dan pelemahan rupiah yang menekan daya beli properti. H1 2026 marketing sales fell 18% yoy amid high rates, management itself guides 2026 profit and revenue down 10%, and the business stays highly sensitive to the BI rate cycle and rupiah weakness pressuring property affordability. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU27 Jul 202626 Jun 202605 Jul 2026Maybank pertahankan buy CTRA target Rp850 didukung proyek baru & segmen menengah-atasDampak ke tesis: Segmen >Rp2 miliar kini 67% pre-sales; dua cluster baru ditargetkan Rp500 miliar pre-sales masing-masing. Impact: The >Rp2bn segment is now 67% of pre-sales; two new clusters are each targeted for Rp500bn in pre-sales.CTRA tetapkan dividen tunai Rp36/saham (Rp667,28 miliar), dibayar 24 Juli 2026Dampak ke tesis: Keputusan rutin RUPST 26 Jun 2026; sebagian besar laba tetap ditahan untuk pengembangan usaha. Impact: A routine 26 Jun AGM decision; most profit is still retained for business development.CTRA proyeksikan laba & pendapatan 2026 turun 10%, marketing sales H1 turun 18% yoyDampak ke tesis: Manajemen akui daya beli lesu di beberapa wilayah; target 2026 ditetapkan konservatif dan realistis. Impact: Management acknowledges soft purchasing power in several regions; 2026 targets are set conservatively.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · CTRA2,637 880 607 8,615 25,604 46,694 19,278 24,534 27,416 5.68% 10.81% 3.97x 0.43x2,558 829 549 8,457 25,137 45,841 18,407 24,550 27,434 5.89% 10.99% 4.88x 0.54x12,617 4,245 2,818 8,851 26,306 47,972 21,107 24,042 26,866 5.87% 11.72% 5.61x 0.66x11,187 3,823 2,329 8,654 25,721 46,906 22,454 21,881 24,452 4.97% 10.64% 7.80x 0.83x9,246 3,483 1,908 8,125 24,149 44,040 21,657 20,030 22,383 4.33% 9.53% 11.37x 1.08x9,127 3,404 2,002 7,795 23,168 42,250 21,497 18,571 20,753 4.74% 10.78% 8.72x 0.94x 3,37%2,5%7,6%5,69x3,74x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis RINGKASAN KEUANGAN Financial Sum
CPINCharoen Pokphand Indonesia TbkConsumer Staples · Produsen pakan ternak & pemain unggas terintegrasi terbesar di Indonesia· Tercatat di BEI sejak 1991 Consumer Staples · Indonesia's largest integrated animal feed & poultry producer · Listed on IDX since 1991PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 3 Selective opportunity — lebih taktis, perlu monitoring lebih ketat more tactical, needs closer monitoringRp 3.080 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 3.400 base price 30 JunRp 4.980 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+62% kualitas laba/ROE terkuat di WIN17 (28%) the strongest quality/ROE profile in WIN17 (28%)Dokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicCharoen Pokphand memiliki ROE tertinggi di seluruh WIN17 (28,1%) sebagai market leader poultry terintegrasi, namun harga sahamnya justru turun sejak awal 2026 meski laba kuartal I-2026 melonjak 67,7% yoy menjadi Rp2,57 triliun. NH Korindo menaikkan rekomendasi menjadi Buy dengan target Rp5.060, mencatat valuasi CPIN berada di bawah -1 standar deviasi rata-rata PER historisnya. Risiko utama tetap pada sisi biaya: pelemahan rupiah dapat menaikkan harga bahan baku pakan impor seperti bungkil kedelai (SBM). Charoen Pokphand carries the highest ROE in the entire WIN17 book (28.1%) as the integrated poultry market leader, yet its share price has fallen since early 2026 even as Q1 2026 profit jumped 67.7% yoy to Rp2.57tn. NH Korindo upgraded to Buy with a Rp5,060 target, noting the stock trades below -1 standard deviation of its historical PER average. The key risk remains cost-side: rupiah weakness could raise imported feed input costs like soybean meal. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it ROE 28,1% — tertinggi di seluruh WIN17 — mencerminkan kualitas laba dan posisi market leader poultry terintegrasi. Laba bersih kuartal I-2026 melonjak 67,7% yoy menjadi Rp2,57 triliun, ditopang kenaikan harga jual ayam & permintaan MBG. NH Korindo upgrade ke Buy, target Rp5.060, mencatat valuasi di bawah -1 SD rata- rata PER historis 3 tahun. The highest ROE in WIN17 reflecting quality and market leadership, a 67.7% yoy Q1 profit jump, and a broker upgrade citing valuation below -1 standard deviation of the historical average.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Harga saham turun ~6% sejak awal 2026 meski fundamental kuat — kontribusi indeks negatif (−5,00 poin) periode berjalan. Pelemahan rupiah dapat menaikkan biaya bahan baku pakan impor (bungkil kedelai/SBM), menekan margin. Dividen Rp180/saham (Rp2,95 triliun) telah dibayar Juni 2026; payout tahun depan bergantung pada arah laba 2026. The stock is down ~6% YTD despite strong fundamentals (a negative index contribution this period), rupiah weakness could raise imported feed costs, and next year's payout depends on how FY2026 profit trends. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU08 Mei 202621 Mei 202606 Mei 2026Laba CPIN kuartal I-2026 melonjak 67,7% yoy menjadi Rp2,57 triliunDampak ke tesis: Ditopang konsumsi Ramadan dan program MBG yang mengerek harga jual rata-rata ayam. Impact: Driven by Ramadan consumption and the MBG programme lifting average chicken selling prices.CPIN bagikan dividen tunai Rp2,95 triliun (Rp180/saham), dibayar 12 Juni 2026Dampak ke tesis: Dividend yield sekitar 4,2%, dua kali lipat bunga deposito; keputusan rutin RUPST 20 Mei 2026. Impact: A roughly 4.2% yield, twice the deposit rate; a routine 20 May AGM decision.Analis: pelemahan rupiah berisiko naikkan biaya bahan baku pakan CPINDampak ke tesis: Kiwoom Sekuritas soroti risiko kenaikan biaya bungkil kedelai (SBM) impor akibat pelemahan rupiah. Impact: Kiwoom Sekuritas flags the risk of rising imported soybean-meal costs from rupiah weakness.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · CPIN19,466 5,028 1,130 5,361 28,686 52,315 17,424 34,877 34,891 14.23% 21.35% 7.49x 1.60x19,952 3,827 2,578 4,966 26,572 48,459 11,720 36,724 36,738 13.79% 18.20% 10.06x 1.83x70,705 9,654 5,643 4,699 25,144 45,855 11,725 34,117 34,130 12.31% 16.54% 13.11x 2.17x67,478 7,596 3,711 4,383 23,455 42,774 12,488 30,274 30,286 8.68% 12.26% 21.04x 2.58x61,616 5,814 2,318 4,205 22,501 41,034 13,978 27,045 27,056 5.65% 8.57% 35.55x 3.05x56,867 5,380 2,930 4,052 21,680 39,538 13,303 26,224 26,235 7.41% 11.17% 31.62x 3.53x 10,00%11,0%28,1%11,03x7,53x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis RINGKASAN KEUANGAN Financial Summary DAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attrac
BBNIBank Negara Indonesia TbkFinancials · Bank BUMN besar dengan basis korporasi, komersial & konsumer luas ·Tercatat di BEI sejak 1996 Financials · Major state-owned bank with a broad corporate, commercial & consumer base · Listed on IDX since 1996PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 3 Selective opportunity — lebih taktis, perlu monitoring lebih ketat more tactical, needs closer monitoringRp 3.650 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 3.160 base price 30 JunRp 4.525 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+24% termurah di antara bank besar the cheapest among the big banksDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicBNI diperdagangkan pada PER termurah di antara bank besar (6,2x), dan kontributor poin indeks terbesar di WIN17 (+11,39 poin). Laba empat bulan pertama 2026 mencapai Rp7,29 triliun (+6% yoy), mengakselerasi dari pertumbuhan Q1 sebesar 5,2%, ditopang kredit yang tumbuh 21% yoy dan CASA naik 26,6% yoy. Ciptadana Sekuritas mempertahankan target Rp5.200 (Buy). Program buyback 2026 resmi dihentikan dan diselesaikan 6 Jul 2026 tanpa dampak material, namun kenaikan biaya pencadangan bulanan (CoC naik ke 1,3% dari 0,7%) di April perlu dipantau pada laporan Q2. BNI trades at the cheapest PER among the big banks (6.2x), and is WIN17's single largest index-point contributor (+11.39 points). Four-month 2026 profit reached Rp7.29tn (+6% yoy), accelerating from Q1's 5.2% growth, on 21% yoy credit growth and 26.6% yoy CASA growth. Ciptadana Sekuritas maintains a Rp5,200 (Buy) target. The 2026 buyback programme was officially terminated and completed 6 Jul 2026 with no material impact, though rising monthly provisioning costs (CoC up to 1.3% from 0.7%) in April bear watching in the Q2 report. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Laba empat bulan pertama 2026 Rp7,29 triliun (+6% yoy), mengakselerasi dari Q1; setara 33,1% target tahunan. Kredit tumbuh 21% yoy dan CASA naik 26,6% yoy, penopang struktur pendanaan yang solid. Ciptadana Sekuritas pertahankan target Rp5.200 (Buy), setara 1,1x PBV estimasi 2026. Accelerating profit growth to Rp7.29tn in four months, strong 21% credit and 26.6% CASA growth, and a maintained Buy rating with a Rp5,200 target.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Biaya pencadangan (CoC) naik ke 1,3% pada April dari 0,7% di Maret, dengan beban provisi melonjak 102% mom. NIM terkompresi 20 bps yoy ke 3,9%, meski laju kompresi melambat dibanding kuartal sebelumnya. Skenario stres manajemen: jika minyak mentah US$150/barel dan rupiah di atas Rp20.000, NPL berpotensi naik 1,6 poin persentase. Provisioning costs rose to 1.3% in April from 0.7% in March with a 102% mom jump in provision expense, NIM compressed 20bps yoy to 3.9%, and management's stress scenario shows NPL could rise 1.6pp if oil hits $150/barrel and the rupiah weakens past Rp20,000. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU29 Mei 202606 Jul 202629 Mei 2026Laba BBNI tumbuh 6% di empat bulan pertama 2026, kredit naik 21%Dampak ke tesis: Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia pertahankan target Rp5.200 (Buy); realisasi laba setara 33,1% target tahunan. Impact: Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia maintains a Rp5,200 (Buy) target; profit realisation equals 33.1% of the annual target.BBNI hentikan dan selesaikan program buyback saham 2026Dampak ke tesis: Perusahaan tegaskan tidak ada dampak material terhadap operasional, keuangan, atau kelangsungan usaha. Impact: The company confirms no material impact on operations, finances, or business continuity.Biaya pencadangan BBNI naik ke 1,3% di April dari 0,7% di MaretDampak ke tesis: Beban provisi melonjak 102% mom; perlu dipantau apakah berlanjut pada laporan kuartal II 2026. Impact: Provision expense jumped 102% mom; worth watching whether this persists in the Q2 2026 report.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · BBNI19,632 - 5,124 10,397 n.a. 1,455,714 1,287,522 163,826 168,192 1.43% 12.67% 5.68x 0.72x18,999 7,646 5,686 10,108 n.a. 1,415,250 1,249,670 161,282 165,580 1.44% 12.64% 6.88x 0.87x69,394 27,015 20,111 9,773 n.a. 1,368,333 1,192,122 171,638 176,212 1.47% 11.72% 8.10x 0.95x66,583 28,990 21,670 8,004 n.a. 1,120,652 954,225 162,107 166,427 1.93% 13.37% 7.49x 1.00x68,326 28,078 21,107 7,835 n.a. 1,097,021 942,695 150,321 154,327 1.92% 14.04% 9.50x 1.33x60,880 25,762 18,482 7,333 n.a. 1,026,667 887,163 135,882 139,504 1.80% 13.60% 9.31x 1.27x 10,00%9,0%13,6%8,85x6,18x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News
BBRIBank Rakyat Indonesia TbkFinancials · Bank BUMN terbesar berbasis UMKM & mikro di Indonesia ·Tercatat di BEI sejak 2003 Financials · Indonesia's largest state-owned MSME/microfinance-focused bank · Listed on IDX since 2003PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 4 Watch / reserve — posisi pelengkap, keyakinan relatif lebih rendah complementary position, relatively lower convictionRp 3.090 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 2.730 base price 30 JunRp 3.714 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+20% eksposur UMKM memberi growth, ROE kuat MSME exposure gives growth, strong ROEDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicBRI diperdagangkan pada PER 7,0x, dan baru menerima dukungan besar dari pasar: JPMorgan menaikkan peringkat dua tingkat sekaligus dari Underweight menjadi Overweight pada 19 Jul 2026, dengan target harga naik dari Rp2.730 menjadi Rp3.400, mencatat valuasi 2,2–2,6 standar deviasi di bawah rata-rata 5–10 tahun. Laba kuartal I-2026 tumbuh 13,7% yoy menjadi Rp15,5 triliun, ditopang kredit UMKM Rp1.211 triliun. Namun porsi kredit UMKM justru turun 11,85% yoy dibanding komposisi tahun sebelumnya — nuansa yang perlu dipantau mengingat UMKM adalah inti tesis pertumbuhan BRI. BRI trades at a 7.0x PER, and just received a major vote of confidence: JPMorgan upgraded it two notches from Underweight to Overweight on 19 Jul 2026, raising its target from Rp2,730 to Rp3,400, noting the stock trades 2.2–2.6 standard deviations below its 5–10 year average. Q1 2026 profit grew 13.7% yoy to Rp15.5tn, backed by Rp1,211tn of MSME lending. Yet the MSME share of total credit actually fell 11.85% yoy against the prior year's mix — a nuance worth watching given MSME lending is core to BRI's growth thesis. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it JPMorgan upgrade dua tingkat ke Overweight (19 Jul 2026), target naik dari Rp2.730 menjadi Rp3.400. Valuasi 2,2–2,6 standar deviasi di bawah rata-rata PER/PBV 5–10 tahun — salah satu diskon terdalam di sektor perbankan. Laba kuartal I-2026 tumbuh 13,7% yoy menjadi Rp15,5 triliun, dengan NPL terkendali di 1,85%, di bawah target internal 2,0%. A two-notch JPMorgan upgrade with a raised target, one of the sector's deepest valuation discounts, and solid Q1 profit growth with controlled NPL.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Porsi kredit UMKM turun 11,85% yoy dibanding komposisi tahun sebelumnya, meski nominal tetap tumbuh — perlu dipantau. Sepanjang H1-2026, JPMorgan sendiri masih memasang rating Underweight sebelum upgrade — mencerminkan pandangan yang berubah cepat. Sebagai bank terbesar berbasis mikro, sensitif terhadap daya beli segmen bawah dan kualitas kredit UMKM jangka panjang. The MSME credit share declined 11.85% yoy despite nominal growth, JPMorgan itself held an Underweight view through H1 2026 before this rapid reversal, and as the largest microfinance- focused bank BRI stays sensitive to lower-income purchasing power and long-run MSME credit quality. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU19 Jul 202630 Apr 202604 Mei 2026JPMorgan upgrade BBRI dua tingkat ke Overweight, target naik ke Rp3.400Dampak ke tesis: Riset “Micro trumps macro” menyebut valuasi BBRI 2,2–2,6 SD di bawah rata-rata historis; pembalikan dari rating Underweight sepanjang H1. Impact: The "Micro trumps macro" report cites a 2.2–2.6 SD valuation discount to history; a reversal from an Underweight stance held through H1.Laba BBRI kuartal I-2026 tumbuh 13,7% yoy menjadi Rp15,5 triliunDampak ke tesis: Kredit tumbuh 13,7% yoy menjadi Rp1.562 triliun; pre-provision operating profit Rp32,2 triliun. Impact: Credit grew 13.7% yoy to Rp1,562tn; pre-provision operating profit reached Rp32.2tn.Porsi kredit UMKM BRI turun 11,85% yoy meski total kredit tumbuhDampak ke tesis: Kredit UMKM Rp1.211 triliun turun dari Rp1.373,66 triliun setahun lalu — relevan bagi tesis pertumbuhan berbasis UMKM. Impact: MSME credit at Rp1,211tn is down from Rp1,373.66tn a year earlier — relevant to the MSME-led growth thesis.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · BBRI52,838 21,775 15,634 32,993 n.a. 2,245,362 1,900,228 338,275 345,135 2.63% 17.45% 8.55x 1.49x207,784 79,117 57,132 31,521 n.a. 2,145,135 1,814,607 323,959 330,528 2.66% 17.64% 9.71x 1.71x199,266 84,059 60,307 29,153 n.a. 1,984,000 1,660,296 317,271 323,704 3.04% 19.01% 10.25x 1.95x188,076 82,435 60,424 28,863 n.a. 1,964,268 1,646,403 311,547 317,865 3.08% 19.39% 14.36x 2.79x160,811 67,921 51,409 27,583 n.a. 1,877,188 1,571,511 299,601 305,676 2.74% 17.16% 14.56x 2.50x 10,00%10,0%18,0%9,55x7,02x2026Q4
LSIPPP London Sumatra Indonesia TbkConsumer Staples · Perusahaan perkebunan sawit & karet, bagian Grup Salim (anak usaha SIMP)· Tercatat di BEI sejak 1996 Consumer Staples · Palm oil & rubber plantation company, part of the Salim Group (SIMP subsidiary) · Listed on IDX since 1996PT GANENDRA WINVESTASI NUSANTARA - INVESTMENT DESK WIN17 — Laporan Saham IndividualIndividual Stock Report · Equity Research & Index MethodologyTanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026Tanggal dasar · Base date 30 Jun 2026LAYER 4 Watch / reserve — posisi pelengkap, keyakinan relatif lebih rendah complementary position, relatively lower convictionRp 1.450 harga dasar 30 Jun: Rp 1.270 base price 30 JunRp 1.727 keluaran model, bukan harga pasar model output, not a market priceNILAI WAJAR WIN17 WIN17 fair valuePOTENSI KENAIKAN upside to fair value+19% perkebunan sawit, laba siklikal komoditas palm plantation, cyclical commodity earningsDokumen internal — pleno investasi · Internal, not publicLonsum diperdagangkan pada PER 4,5x untuk perkebunan sawit & karet anak usaha SIMP. Ciptadana Sekuritas menaikkan target harga menjadi Rp2.190 dari Rp1.820 (4 Mei 2026), mencerminkan rerating sektor sawit seiring siklus kenaikan harga CPO, meski laba kuartal I-2026 relatif stagnan (+0,7% yoy menjadi Rp394 miliar) dan laba usaha turun 20% yoy akibat kenaikan biaya. Dividen Rp83/saham telah dibayarkan 24 Jul 2026. Ketahanan laba di tengah tekanan margin dinilai analis sebagai sinyal positif menjelang siklus CPO yang lebih baik. Lonsum trades at a 4.5x PER as SIMP's palm-and-rubber plantation subsidiary. Ciptadana Sekuritas raised its target to Rp2,190 from Rp1,820 (4 May 2026), reflecting a palm-sector re-rating on the CPO price cycle, even as Q1 2026 profit was roughly flat (+0.7% yoy to Rp394bn) and operating profit fell 20% yoy on rising costs. An Rp83/share dividend was paid 24 Jul 2026. Analysts view the profit resilience amid margin pressure as a positive signal ahead of a better CPO cycle. TESIS INVESTASI Investment ThesisMENGAPA KAMI MEMEGANGNYA Why we hold it Ciptadana Sekuritas naikkan target harga ke Rp2.190 dari Rp1.820 (4 Mei 2026), mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy. Laba bersih tetap tumbuh tipis (+0,7% yoy) di tengah tekanan biaya, menunjukkan daya tahan di awal siklus CPO. Dividen tunai Rp83/saham telah dibayarkan 24 Jul 2026, konsisten dengan kebijakan payout tahunan. A raised broker target reflecting the palm-sector re-rating, resilient profit despite cost pressure, and a paid annual dividend.YANG PERLU DIWASPADAI What could go wrong Laba usaha turun 20% yoy pada kuartal I-2026 akibat kenaikan biaya produksi dan operasional. Margin laba kotor turun dari 39% menjadi 32% yoy — tekanan biaya jadi perhatian jangka pendek utama. Sejumlah analis menurunkan estimasi laba 2026–2027 untuk mengakomodasi tekanan biaya yang berlanjut. Q1 2026 operating profit fell 20% yoy on rising costs, gross margin dropped from 39% to 32% yoy as the main near-term concern, and some analysts trimmed 2026-2027 profit estimates to reflect ongoing cost pressure. POSITIF NETRAL PANTAU04 Mei 202630 Jun 202602 Mei 2026Ciptadana naikkan target harga LSIP ke Rp2.190 dari Rp1.820, tetap rekomendasi BuyDampak ke tesis: Kenaikan target mencerminkan rerating sektor sawit seiring siklus kenaikan CPO, meski margin Q1 tertekan. Impact: The higher target reflects a palm-sector re-rating on the CPO price cycle, even with Q1 margin pressure.LSIP bagikan dividen Rp83/saham, dibayar 24 Juli 2026Dampak ke tesis: Dividend yield sekitar 4,9%; keputusan rutin tahunan, konsisten dengan payout historis. Impact: A roughly 4.9% yield; a routine annual decision consistent with historical payout.Laba usaha LSIP turun 20% yoy pada kuartal I-2026 akibat kenaikan biayaDampak ke tesis: Margin laba bruto turun dari 39% ke 32%; laba bersih tertolong pendapatan lain-lain dan bunga, bukan operasional inti. Impact: Gross margin fell from 39% to 32%; net profit was propped up by other income and interest, not core operations.Sumber: Internal Monitoring Workbook & Integrated Methodology Document · Nilai wajar, upside & katalis adalah keluaran model internal, bukan fakta pasar · Model outputs, not market facts · Bukan rekomendasi publik · LSIP1,363 625 496 8,372 9,501 16,295 1,977 14,323 14,318 12.66% 14.40% 4.20x 0.60x1,327 495 394 8,130 9,226 15,823 1,449 14,380 14,375 11.94% 13.14% 5.20x 0.68x5,513 2,398 1,886 7,981 9,057 15,534 1,534 14,004 13,999 12.14% 13.47% 4.46x 0.60x4,561 1,939 1,476 7,111 8,069 13,840 1,270 12,575 12,570 10.66% 11.74% 4.69x 0.55x4,190 1,341 761 6,428 7,294 12,510 1,171 11,343 11,339 6.08% 6.71% 8.14x 0.55x4,585 1,577 1,035 6,381 7,242 12,420 1,500 10,924 10,920 8.33% 9.47% 6.69x 0.63x 2,65%8,0%11,8%6,16x4,53x2026Q4 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025 2024 2023 2022Revenue EBITDA Net Earning Cash Current Asset Total Asset Loan Equity Total Equity ROA ROE PER PBV BERITA TERKAIT & DAMPAKNYA News Flow & Impact on the Thesis RINGKASAN KEUANGAN Financial Summary DAYA TARIK & RISIKO Attractions &
WINVESTASI RESEARCH REPORT 1.0 | WIN17 WINvestasi Nusantara Research 24 Disusun oleh Prepared by Disetujui oleh Approved by Peneliti WINvestasi Nusantara WINvestasi Nusantara Reseach Erfan Rachmadi Tanggal: 15 Agustus 2026 Date: August, 15th 2026 Komite Indeks WIN17 WIN17 Index Committee Januari Ayu Fridayani Tanggal: 17 Agustus 2026 Date: August, 17th 2026
